INDIA
Piyush Goyal the reformer shines through in India-UAE CEPA and other complex trade pacts
Trade negotiations are substantially about expanding the area of the possible, and gradualism is a given approach. Seen through this lens, the pace at which Goyal has piloted these, building personal rapport with his counterparts, are nothing short of big-bang
BUSINESS
Budget 2022| FM Niramala Sitharaman blends welfare needs with reformist intent
India’s official digital currency coming soon; gains from crypto assets to be taxed at 30 pc from April 1, 2021; capped the surcharge on long-term capital gains on any type of assets at 15 per cent; measures for use of big-data and drones in the farming sectors and incentives for agri-tech startups announced.
ECONOMY
Economic Survey 2022 pegs FY23 GDP growth at 8-8.5%
Economic Survey 2022: Calls for modifying IBC to make processes simpler; sounded a note of caution on the potential of the US Fed Reserve’s tapering on India; surging domestic inflation and rising oil prices remain as watch out areas; bats for A-I, drones for agri reforms
BUSINESS
Here’s why the morning hot cuppa and the platter got costlier
If crude prices harden, it could have a cascading effect, negating the fuel tax cut gains that lowered petrol and diesel prices. Costlier transport fuel could make most other goods dearer as the cost of ferrying products across India becomes expensive
INDIA
Budget 22: Policymaking is more than just fiscal math in times of COVID and elections
FM Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Budget just ahead of crucial Assembly polls in UP and other states. The challenge for the finance minister will be to walk the talk on the government’s reformist intent without being on the wrong side of the political debate.
BUSINESS
GDP noses ahead of pre-COVID-19 levels, but don’t pop the champagne yet
To assess how far the economy has recovered from the piling rubble of COVID-19’s devastation, it will be more prudent to compare the current year’s metrics with that of 2019-20, the immediate pre-COVID-19 year.
BUSINESS
Farm laws rolled back. Whither agriculture reforms?
Farmers need access to markets that fetch them the best price in efficiently driven systems. The Prime Minister’s announcement shall take care of farmers’ fears of corporate takeover of India’s agri markets. The bigger question is: Is the status quo situation of over-dependence on middlemen better?
BUSINESS
New contractor selection process will enhance transparency, efficiency
This is a good beginning to infuse quality and move away from the default lowest-bidder-wins (L1) method. A lot, however, will depend on the design of the QCBS method for specific projects and the way the weights are assigned and appraised
BUSINESS
India’s Growth Story | Union Budget could be a booster shot for economy
From IMF to Moody’s, the phraseology is bullish about India. The condition is perfect for the Budget to help regain the status of the fastest growing economy on a sustained basis
BUSINESS
Air India-Tata Deal: Shed flab quickly to fully end the Maharaja’s privy purse
Thinning down of Air India’s muster rolls, without too much pain, in the quickest possible time through a well-structured VRS scheme along with natural attrition will be key to the revival plan
BUSINESS
A Baa3 rating is not in sync with Moody's bullish assessment of India
Despite brighter macroeconomic prospects, a string of policy reforms, and a fast recovering financial sector emerging from a rubble of bad loans, India’s credit rating still remains tantalisingly close to the ‘junk status’
BUSINESS
Demand is back, but rising costs could spoil the revival party
Businesses are looking expectantly towards festive season buying to bring them closer to pre-COVID-19 levels of sales volume. Escalating costs, however, can erode profitability
POLITICS
India’s Education Puzzle | High enrolment but low literacy, numeracy skills
Children who cannot read fluently and lack basic mathematical aptitude will find their schooling ineffective for the real world. Solving this requires a ‘Sabka Prayas’, collaborative approach
BUSINESS
Q1 GDP strong, but not strong enough to catapult economy to pre-COVID-19 levels
There will be two key determinants to sustain a stronger and stable rebound. One, the volume and spatial distribution of monsoon, which has so far remained sub-par. Two, the pace of lifting of restrictions ahead of the festive season in October-November, which will be a function of the pace of vaccination
BUSINESS
Fair play and transparency will determine success of National Monetisation Pipeline
Private monopolies holding considerable sway over large swathes of infrastructure assets worth billions of dollars can result in inequitable consequences that can linger for decades
BUSINESS
IPCC Report | Time to smell the rain; the warning lights are flashing furiously
India’s policymakers and citizens should take IPCC’s warning signs with utmost seriousness. Erratic monsoon rains could disrupt the oxygen supply to the economy’s life-blood
ECONOMY
Retro is not always cool
The Narendra Modi government’s decision to reverse retrospective taxes, after seven years in office, may have been precipitated by recent judicial reverses, particularly in the case of Cairn Energy
INDIA
A shift from ABCD to 3Ts may solve Kerala’s COVID-19 puzzle
Kerala can't afford to remain locked down for months on end, a move that can devastate the local economy and livelihoods. The containment strategy should decisively shift towards 3Ts — Test, Trace, Treat — from the current ABCD approach of community surveillance
BUSINESS
Population has stabilised, employability and good health are the key areas
The central long-run question facing India is to spin jobs and multiply income in a sustainable way. Productive jobs are vital for growth. And a good job is the best form of inclusion
BUSINESS
RIL’s green foray will bring in scale and help mitigate risks for the sector
It will create confidence and will likely enable easier, and quicker, financial closure; will usher in scale in local manufacturing in India’s renewable energy sector—important to lower costs.
BUSINESS
Several worry lines showing up in inflation numbers
Rural inflation in May this year outpaced urban. There has been a sharp spike in inflation of protein-based products, and oil. Plentiful rains this summer is crucial not only to contain food prices but also to ensure to steady farm incomes in villages pummeled by the pandemic
TRENDS
Q4 GDP | Some numbers look pretty, but a rebound from the second wave could be several months away
India GDP: India’s ability to bounce back from the impact of the second Covid-19 wave will depend mainly on one factor: the pace of vaccination.
BUSINESS
GDP data | Guard against fitting trends from Q4 growth
The bigger question to watch out for is whether the slide in April-June this year turns out to be deeper than last year. The immediate past on the GDP front may actually mirror the opposite of what could happen in the coming months.
BUSINESS
$3-trillion market-cap: What are investors seeing differently in stocks that is not showing in the real economy?
Indian stocks will continue to command value, perhaps even more than now, depending on the pace at which the real economy canters back to normal activity. Until that happens, the risk of an asset bubble will always remain.
