BUSINESS
Demand is back, but rising costs could spoil the revival party
Businesses are looking expectantly towards festive season buying to bring them closer to pre-COVID-19 levels of sales volume. Escalating costs, however, can erode profitability
POLITICS
India’s Education Puzzle | High enrolment but low literacy, numeracy skills
Children who cannot read fluently and lack basic mathematical aptitude will find their schooling ineffective for the real world. Solving this requires a ‘Sabka Prayas’, collaborative approach
BUSINESS
Q1 GDP strong, but not strong enough to catapult economy to pre-COVID-19 levels
There will be two key determinants to sustain a stronger and stable rebound. One, the volume and spatial distribution of monsoon, which has so far remained sub-par. Two, the pace of lifting of restrictions ahead of the festive season in October-November, which will be a function of the pace of vaccination
BUSINESS
Fair play and transparency will determine success of National Monetisation Pipeline
Private monopolies holding considerable sway over large swathes of infrastructure assets worth billions of dollars can result in inequitable consequences that can linger for decades
BUSINESS
IPCC Report | Time to smell the rain; the warning lights are flashing furiously
India’s policymakers and citizens should take IPCC’s warning signs with utmost seriousness. Erratic monsoon rains could disrupt the oxygen supply to the economy’s life-blood
ECONOMY
Retro is not always cool
The Narendra Modi government’s decision to reverse retrospective taxes, after seven years in office, may have been precipitated by recent judicial reverses, particularly in the case of Cairn Energy
INDIA
A shift from ABCD to 3Ts may solve Kerala’s COVID-19 puzzle
Kerala can't afford to remain locked down for months on end, a move that can devastate the local economy and livelihoods. The containment strategy should decisively shift towards 3Ts — Test, Trace, Treat — from the current ABCD approach of community surveillance
BUSINESS
Population has stabilised, employability and good health are the key areas
The central long-run question facing India is to spin jobs and multiply income in a sustainable way. Productive jobs are vital for growth. And a good job is the best form of inclusion
BUSINESS
RIL’s green foray will bring in scale and help mitigate risks for the sector
It will create confidence and will likely enable easier, and quicker, financial closure; will usher in scale in local manufacturing in India’s renewable energy sector—important to lower costs.
BUSINESS
Several worry lines showing up in inflation numbers
Rural inflation in May this year outpaced urban. There has been a sharp spike in inflation of protein-based products, and oil. Plentiful rains this summer is crucial not only to contain food prices but also to ensure to steady farm incomes in villages pummeled by the pandemic
TRENDS
Q4 GDP | Some numbers look pretty, but a rebound from the second wave could be several months away
India GDP: India’s ability to bounce back from the impact of the second Covid-19 wave will depend mainly on one factor: the pace of vaccination.
BUSINESS
GDP data | Guard against fitting trends from Q4 growth
The bigger question to watch out for is whether the slide in April-June this year turns out to be deeper than last year. The immediate past on the GDP front may actually mirror the opposite of what could happen in the coming months.
BUSINESS
$3-trillion market-cap: What are investors seeing differently in stocks that is not showing in the real economy?
Indian stocks will continue to command value, perhaps even more than now, depending on the pace at which the real economy canters back to normal activity. Until that happens, the risk of an asset bubble will always remain.
BUSINESS
COVID-19 Vaccine | States jostling with global bids may push up prices without assured timely supplies
A national bid appears a better option than states pushing around among themselves to secure vials for a country that otherwise takes pride in being the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer
INDIA
COVID-19 | US support for waiving vaccine patents, India’s role and other questions answered
What does the US decision to support an initiative at WTO for temporary waiver of patent protection for COVID-19 vaccines mean for India? Below is a primer.
BUSINESS
Invoke emergency licence rules to rapidly ramp up COVID-19 vaccine production
Time to press for Sections 92, 100 and 102 of the Indian Patents Act. Vaccines are the only forceful arsenal to win this war. These need to be produced in hundreds of millions in rapid time
POLITICS
Congress-AIUDF alliance helped BJP appropriate greater ethno-nationalistic space in Assam despite CAA
Will the BJP be finally able to shed its ‘Hindi-speaking North Indian party’ image in Assam? The answer to this will depend on how well the AJP and the RD are able to politically mobilise themselves in the next five years within a complex matrix of ethnic identities
BUSINESS
Free vaccines from Centre’s quota and free to strike deals: Why states have no reason to complain
The focus should now move to making the most of this flexibility to vaccinate as many as possible. Politicking can wait until the storm settles down
INDIA
COVID-19 second wave | Smash bureaucratic barriers, allow voluntary licensing for Covaxin immediately
Granting access to technology and know-how to Indian generic drug makers to produce Covaxin can quickly help fill the gaps in vaccine supplies.
CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19 | Are we staring at a potential vaccine supply crisis in the race to 1.4 billion doses?
The ability to carry out the world’s mass vaccination exercise in record time, will depend on keeping vaccine supplies of hundreds of millions of doses flowing uninterruptedly for months.
BUSINESS
Private sector needs to demolish vaccine hesitancy among employees and workers
Organisations understand the cost of another lockdown. It is showing up in their balance sheets. They can play a big role in avoiding a repeat
BUSINESS
In defence of small savings rate cuts
In its decision to reverse the cuts and maintain status quo on small saving deposit rates, the government has knowingly established a saver-borrower trade-off when, in the broader analysis, the lines between them are, at best, blurred
BUSINESS
Opinion: BJP banks on welfare and infra record in Assam to offset NRC, CAA backlash
State GDP growth matches national trend line, but high unemployment rates stand out as big worry
INDIA
COVID-19: Severe crackdown on Covidiots, massive scale-up in vaccination run-rate needed to contain second wave
Mass masking up, strict enforcement of COVID-19 protocols are the clearest ways to contain the spread. Otherwise, the cost for lives and livelihoods will be too prohibitive for the country to bear.
