BUSINESS
Time to relabel: “Indian rate of growth” is the new benchmark
India is the fastest growing major economy and is on course to be the world's third largest. Raj Krishna may have coined “Hindu rate of growth” as an analytical shorthand, highlighting India's slow economic development in the 1970s under its then-prevailing socialist policies. What remains unexplained, however, is the need to attach a religious label to it, as if only the Hindus were responsible for India's economic stagnation and the perceived failures of its statist economic model.
BUSINESS
OPINION | IPO Journeys: No standard blueprint applies
It can be tempting to draw parallels and make comparisons between prominent companies, especially those under the same corporate umbrella. For example, while evaluating the IPO prospects of PhonePe (which has filed for a mega Rs 12,000 crore IPO), versus Flipkart, such direct comparisons can be misleading. These two entities, despite their shared Walmart parentage, operate on fundamentally different business models
BUSINESS
Infant industry paradox: Trump's tariffs raise questions about US protectionism
Many goods that are exported to the US are from factories contracted in India by some iconic US corporations. Apple is an example. Levis Strauss & Co. is another. These aren’t `infants’ that need tariffs to ringfence them from competitive pressures. They are matured giants with a storied legacy, who have set up supply lines across the world
BUSINESS
Tariffs as a catalyst for another 1991 moment: Trump tantrums can spur India towards reforms
A strategic pivot towards strengthening domestic consumption and internal growth drivers can become a powerful mitigating factor against external pressures, such as tariffs
BUSINESS
Vodafone Idea's Struggle vs BSNL's Resurgence: A tale of two telecoms
State-owned BSNL has reported two consecutive quarterly profits, a first in 18 years, while private sector giant Vodafone Idea continues to struggle with losses. Dues not paid to the government is public money, and such funds should not be available to throw around for running loss making private companies
BUSINESS
Don’t get caught in the FDI ‘Net’. What data doesn't reveal about India’s investment appeal
During 2024-25, many foreign investors divested their Indian operations through initial public offerings (IPO), making significant returns on their investments in some of India’s trailblazing startups. Private equity and venture capital funds realised a total of US$26.7 billion in exits, representing a 7% year-on-year increase. Another central element in this focus is about the analytical markers, itself. It may be worthwhile to analyse FDI inflows as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) on a cross-country basis
POLITICS
Modi’s Op Sindoor Address: National interest, geostrategic calculus, and the art of communication
PM’s address to the nation conveyed a multifaceted message, targeting Pakistan, the international community, and the Indian public.
POLITICS
War Economics: The Kargil cess template and market’s irrationality
The Kargil War led to increased defence spending, tax reform, and military modernisation in India. It also exemplified the 'war puzzle', where anticipated conflict boosts markets, while surprise wars trigger negative investor reactions
BUSINESS
Beyond Handouts: India's inclusivity push must shift from cash to careers
The stakes are high, and India’s economic future depends on its ability to equip its workforce with the skills required to compete in an increasingly complex and automated global economy
BUSINESS
Fiscal fortitude: India’s debt-to-GDP record dwarfs shaky G7
Budget marks a significant shift from a qualitative goal to a specific, measurable target to 50 per cent by 2031. Since 2013, India's average central government debt-to-GDP ratio has been 49.03 per cent. The USA’s central government debt-to-GDP ratio has remained above 100 per cent since 2020, as also Japan’s, Italy’s and UK’s (barring 2022, when it was marginally lower)
BUSINESS
Budget making in times of complex constrained optimisation
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has an opportunity to trigger the right catalysts to unleash entrepreneurial animal spirits, and remain relentlessly focused on infrastructure-led growth and job creation
BUSINESS
SEBI needs to find a fine balance between regulation and market development on index derivatives
The regulator should keep one eye firmly on efficient price discovery, which is the core staple of a well-regulated capital market. This is a complex trade-off for SEBI to make
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: Election results shouldn’t nudge NDA to stray from its fiscal goals
Union Budget 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman’s forthcoming budget is constrained by an effective time horizon of just eight months before the next one. Its fiscal stance should reflect continuity
BUSINESS
Sizzling 8.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 shows economy firmly in investment mode
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a proxy to measure investment activity in the broader economy and accounting for about a third of India’s GDP (32.4 percent), grew 10.5 percent during October-December this year, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the previous quarter’s growth of 11.6 percent, and sharply higher than the 5 percent growth in GFCF in the third quarter of 2022-23.
BUSINESS
Karnataka budget's puzzling question: Why has the govt cut capex by nearly 28 percent?
Big jump in non-scheme-based expenditure. Set to grow to 61 percent of the state’s total revenue receipts in 2024-25, up from 56 percent in 2023-24 and further higher than 48 percent in 2022-23. This is a red flag that would prompt fiscal purists to stand up and take notice
BUSINESS
Analysis: FM Sitharaman links secularism to government welfare programmes
India’s economic resurgence, amid the challenges posed by the pandemic, owes much to the Modi government’s ability to push through critical reforms that were previously stalled for lack of consensus.
BUSINESS
Interim Budget seeks to decouple budget-making from long-term policy goals
FM Sitharaman walks the talk on fiscal discipline. The finance minister has put the accent on the hour hand of the clock by looking ahead a quarter century hence (2047) and free-up policymaking mindspace from annual financial calendars
BUSINESS
UPI is more than ease of payments. It is adding to GDP too
Ease and convenience of spending has lowered the economy-wide cost of transaction. The resultant saving is triggering incremental spending. UPI is also enabling easier credit-driven household spending
BUSINESS
IIP shows flurry in factories; Nov, Dec numbers crucial to fit a surer trend
If growth holds robustly for the next two months, then it would be reasonable to assume that the broader economy, powered by consumer demand, is accelerating onto a faster track
BUSINESS
Q2 GDP: Manufacturing, construction power up economy, but villages need to shine
Greater factory output, in normal circumstances, should indicate greater demand for goods at an aggregate level. Production and consumption of intermediates—cement and steel—appear to corroborate this. This would broadly imply greater construction activity, which is showing up in the national income numbers.
BUSINESS
God’s own country inching towards a fiscal precipice. Blaming the Centre alone won’t help
Kerala’s finances require a long hard look. By all accounts, this doesn’t make for a healthy public finance management glide path
BUSINESS
Surge in India’s taxpayer base mirrors upward mobility
The number of people declaring Rs 10 lakh-plus annual income has grown nearly fourfold in the past 10 years. While inflation could explain part of this rise in income levels, and a part by more toning of the tax administration nudging people towards more income disclosures, a substantial part of this 93.7 million taxpayer base is a reasonable proxy of growing formalisation, rising incomes, and better affordability that have turned yesterday’s luxuries into today’s necessities
TRENDS
GHI gets it wrong. Shorter Indian children doesn't mean it is because they sleep hungry. It’s more complex than that
There is a wide body of literature by distinguished Nobel laureates that suggest correlating height with hunger will be fallacious. There are two fundamental flaws in GHI’s methodology. First, is the conflation of the aspect of physical height with hunger. Second, is the collection and the methodology of data itself. The highest level of statistical and academic rigour should be non-negotiable while framing such indices. Hunger is too serious a matter
BUSINESS
India’s growth a global standout with China slowing and US recession still likely
World Bank projections reinforce India’s position as a global growth engine. The world will lean heavily on India to pull the global economy in an uncertain period
