IMF's 4.9% GDP projection has a statistical problem: Montek

Differing with International Monetary Fund's growth forecast of 4.9 per cent for India during 2012, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said it has a statistical problem.

"I think, it is the result of a bit of statistical problem," he told reporters on the sidelines of 4th OECD World Forum in reply to a question on the recent economic growth projection for India by IMF.

Ahluwalia said he did not think 4.9 per cent projection is reasonable for 2012, as in the first half, Indian economy is estimated to have grown by 5.5 per cent.

"This (4.9 per cent GDP growth projection) would mean that the economy will further decelerate. I doubt it will," he said.

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"I don’t think that IMF was aware of the fact that there was this little difference. They just took the GDP at market prices. There is a big difference between GDP at market price and GDP at factor cost", he said.

IMF calculates GDP at market prices whereas Indian agencies do it on factor cost. The GDP at market prices include indirect taxes which is not the case in factor cost.

According to the government data, the country’s GDP grew by 5.5 per cent in the April-June quarter. The data for the second quarter spanning from July to September will be available by this November end.

On the sequential basis, the GDP growth in April- June quarter was higher than 5.3 per cent recorded in preceding quarter of January-March this year.