Why floods are becoming deadly in one of the world’s driest regions

Meteorologists studying the April storm found that it followed record rainfall in the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai’s airport and metro system were flooded

For generations, Oman has been known more for drought than deluge. Much of the country receives barely a few inches of rain in an entire year, and water scarcity has shaped everything from settlement patterns to daily life. Yet in recent years, floods have emerged as one of the country’s most destructive natural threats, catching communities off guard and leaving behind deep loss, the Washington Post reported.

In April last year, this reality struck the village of Samad al-Shan, south of Muscat. A powerful storm dumped more than a year’s worth of rain in just hours. What is normally a dry wadi running through the village turned into a violent river. Two elderly community leaders were swept away in their car, and ten schoolchildren from the same extended family drowned nearby. Residents described the rain as unlike anything they had ever seen.

Flooding in Oman is not entirely new. Older villagers recall earlier times when people would fire warning shots to alert those downstream that water was coming. But those floods were slower, smaller and more predictable. What has changed is the speed and intensity with which rain now falls.

Meteorologists studying the April storm found that it followed record rainfall in the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai’s airport and metro system were flooded. The same weather system then moved east into Oman, fed by unusually strong flows of moisture pulled in from the Arabian Sea. These moisture plumes are growing stronger as ocean temperatures rise, allowing storms to carry and release far more water than before.

In arid regions, this kind of rain is especially dangerous. Dry soil absorbs little water, and wadis can fill within minutes. A road that looks passable can suddenly become lethal. In Samad al-Shan, many people were on the move when the flooding began, trying to get home or pick up children from school. Some schools were closed, others were not. Decisions made under uncertainty became a matter of life and death.

Oman’s vulnerability is also tied to a rise in powerful cyclones. For much of the past century, such storms rarely struck the country. Since 2007, several major cyclones have hit or passed close to the coast. Cyclone Shaheen in 2021 alone dropped extraordinary amounts of rain, destroying hundreds of homes and flooding coastal districts where a large share of the population lives. Scientists say warmer seas are making these storms wetter, even if they are not always stronger in wind terms.

The geography of Oman compounds the risk. With no permanent rivers, many towns and farms were built along wadis, where underground water could be accessed. Historically, this made sense. Today, those same locations sit directly in the path of sudden floods. Despite repeated disasters, homes, schools and roads continue to be built in flood-prone channels, often because land there is cheaper and easier to develop.

Authorities across the Gulf have responded with large infrastructure projects. Oman is expanding dams in the mountains to slow floodwaters and planning dozens more. Evacuation centres are being built, and damaged roads and bridges are often repaired quickly after storms. In neighbouring Dubai, officials are constructing massive underground stormwater tunnels designed to carry floodwater straight to the sea, part of a multibillion-dollar effort to prepare for heavier rain in the decades ahead.

Yet experts warn that engineering alone cannot solve the problem. Predicting desert floods is notoriously difficult. Rainfall can be extremely localised, and in Oman, a large share of a storm’s rain can fall in the first hour or two. Early warnings based only on weather forecasts may not convey how much water will actually rush through a specific wadi.

Researchers in Oman have been trying to build detailed flood models that combine rainfall data with terrain, soil and land-use patterns. Their aim is to create clear flood-risk maps that could guide where building should be restricted and which roads must be closed when storms approach. For now, such tools remain limited.

The grief in Samad al-Shan has not faded. Families continue to question whether clearer warnings or earlier school closures could have saved lives. Officials maintain that procedures were followed, but the tragedy exposed how quickly conditions can overwhelm systems designed for a drier past.

In one of the world’s most arid regions, floods are no longer rare accidents. They are becoming a defining risk, forcing governments and communities alike to confront a difficult truth: climate change is not only about rising heat and water scarcity, but also about sudden, dangerous excess where people least expect it.