Why fewer Chinese women are choosing to have children

(Representative image)

In 2015, China recorded nearly 16.5 million births. A decade later, that number has dropped to just under 8 million. The scale of the fall has surprised even long-time demographers, and it has pushed China into a demographic territory no other large country has entered so quickly.

This is not just about people having fewer children. It is increasingly about people not forming families at all, the Financial Times reported.

Marriage is happening later, or not at all

At the heart of the decline is marriage, or rather the lack of it. Fewer young people are getting married, and many who do are doing so much later than previous generations.

Official data shows that about 30 percent of people aged 30 were unmarried in 2023, up from around 14.5 percent a decade earlier. That shift alone has a direct impact on births in a country where children outside marriage remain rare.

The legacy of the one-child policy plays a role here. For decades, it limited the number of young people entering adulthood. But demographics alone don’t explain the speed of the collapse. Social and economic pressures are doing much of the work.

The economy has changed the calculus

For many young women, the decision to delay or avoid marriage is tied closely to money and security.

China’s domestic economy has struggled to regain momentum after years of disruption, including prolonged zero-Covid controls that wiped out many small businesses. Young graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in decades, with urban youth unemployment officially hovering in the mid-teens and widely believed to be higher in reality.

Housing has made things worse. The property downturn has erased household wealth and made home ownership feel risky rather than aspirational. For couples expected to buy a home before marriage, that matters.

As one woman in Guangdong put it bluntly, friends would rather spend what little money they have on themselves, or even on pets, than on starting a family.

The gender gap keeps widening

China’s fertility decline is also deeply gendered.

Women still carry the bulk of unpaid work. Official surveys show that women spend nearly 90 percent more time than men on household chores and caregiving. For many, motherhood is seen as a permanent career penalty.

At the same time, women are now more educated than men on average. Since 2009, women have outnumbered men in undergraduate and postgraduate programmes. Many move to cities for work, while men remain in smaller towns or rural areas.

This has created a mismatch in the dating market. Provinces dominated by heavy industry and agriculture, such as Liaoning and Heilongjiang, now have some of the lowest birth rates in the country. Major cities like Shanghai also rank near the bottom, but for different reasons: large concentrations of highly educated women and fewer “suitable” partners by their standards.

Layered on top of this is a lingering gender imbalance from the one-child era, when sex-selective abortions skewed the population towards men.

Love, money, and resentment

Social media has amplified tensions between young men and women. Many men complain that women expect expensive gifts, property, and financial security before committing. Women counter that marriage often means taking on unpaid labour with little support.

These narratives feed off each other. Warnings about “gold-diggers” circulate widely online, while women swap stories about careers derailed by marriage and childcare.

Divorce has also become more common. About 5 percent of people aged 40 were divorced in 2023, nearly double the share a decade earlier. While divorce reflects greater female independence, divorced women and single mothers still face stigma, making remarriage difficult.

Policy nudges, limited results

The government has not been passive. Local authorities have rolled out subsidies for newborns, extended leave, easier marriage registration, and even extra vacation days for newlyweds.

So far, the impact has been modest. Supporting married couples to have more children is one challenge. Persuading young people to marry in the first place has proved much harder.

As one demographer put it, the problem is no longer family size. It is family formation.

Why this matters beyond births

China’s shrinking population adds another layer of strain to an economy already grappling with weak consumption, deflationary pressure, and local government debt.

Some economists see parallels with Japan, where expectations of an ageing society dampened long-term growth and created a self-reinforcing cycle of caution. Analysts at firms like Goldman Sachs have warned that similar dynamics could take hold in China.

But for many young women, these macro concerns feel distant.

As one Beijing doctoral student put it, finding a partner who shares values has become harder as social change accelerates. Without that, she said, even thinking about children feels premature.

A quiet shift in expectations

Perhaps the most telling change is social.

Women who once faced constant questions about marriage and babies say the pressure has eased. Stories of burnout, post-partum depression, and financial strain are now common enough to silence nosy neighbours.

China’s falling birth rate is often framed as a crisis. For many women living through it, it feels more like a rational response to a world that offers less security and asks for more sacrifice.