Trump heads into State of the Union with independents turning away

US President Donald Trump (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

When Donald Trump addresses US Congress this week, he does so with a narrower base of public support than at any point since returning to office, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

The sharpest warning sign for the White House is among political independents, a group that often decides midterm elections. Trump’s approval rating with independents has fallen to 26 percent, the lowest CNN has recorded in either of his terms.

Voters doubt his focus, not just his policies

Only 32 percent of Americans now say Trump has focused on the right priorities, while more than two-thirds say he has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems. That is the most negative reading CNN has recorded on that question during his presidency.

On direction, the verdict is similarly bleak. By a margin of 61 percent to 38 percent, respondents say Trump’s policies are moving the country in the wrong direction. Overall job approval stands at 36 percent, with nearly half of adults saying they strongly disapprove of his performance.

This marks a steep shift from early last year, when Trump’s approval briefly climbed to 48 percent ahead of his first address to Congress after returning to the White House.

Support has dropped across key groups

The erosion is not confined to swing voters. Approval has fallen across most major demographic groups over the past year, including a 19-point drop among Latino Americans and an 18-point decline among voters under 45.

Republicans remain Trump’s strongest bloc, but even there the numbers have softened. Approval among Republicans now stands at 49 percent, down from 64 percent a year ago. Nearly three in ten Republicans say he has neglected the country’s biggest problems, and one in six believe his policies are pushing the nation in the wrong direction.

Age divisions within the party are stark. Older Republicans are far more supportive than younger ones, who express significantly higher doubts about Trump’s priorities and policy direction.

The economy dominates expectations for the speech

Asked what they want Trump to address in his State of the Union, voters are unusually unified. Fifty-seven percent say the economy and cost of living should be his top focus, far outpacing any other issue.

That demand cuts across party lines. About half of Democrats, more than half of independents, and nearly two-thirds of Republicans say they want the speech to concentrate on prices, wages, and household costs.

Several respondents said they had expected tangible relief on everyday expenses after Trump’s return to office, particularly on food and basic living costs.

A difficult backdrop for midterms

With Trump’s approval stuck below 40 percent for months and independents increasingly sceptical, the poll underscores the challenge facing Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.

State of the Union audiences tend to skew friendly, offering the president a chance to steady his base. But the broader numbers suggest that persuading swing voters will require more than messaging. Many Americans appear unconvinced that Trump’s attention is on the problems they feel most sharply.