Tensions escalate as Trump pushes Iran towards nuclear negotiations

While Trump contends Iran's economic distress increases the chances of it agreeing to a deal, Iran has thus far been little disposed to acquiesce to American terms.

US President Donald Trump has ratcheted up pressure on Iran, giving its supreme leader an ultimatum: agree to negotiations to shut down its nuclear program or risk possible military action, according to The Washington Post. Still, they remain far apart on terms that could open the door to talks.

Trump's tough line

The US administration position was clarified over the weekend, with National Security Adviser Michael Waltz reaffirming that "all options are on the table." Waltz made it clear that Iran needs to roll back its missile development, weaponisation, and nuclear enrichment in order to not face dire repercussions. The warning came after a major US attack on Iranian-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen, in retaliation for renewed attacks on Red Sea maritime traffic.

Trump's letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sent through the United Arab Emirates' Anwar Gargash, presented the harsh options: negotiate or risk military action. In return, Iran fired back with defiance, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claiming that the US has no right to influence Iranian foreign policy.

Escalating tensions and military actions

The situation further intensified after Houthis asserted that they fired missiles and drones at the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Red Sea, although the Pentagon refused to acknowledge the incident. The assertion came after Trump made a social media post threatening Iran with accountability for proxy attacks.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently confirmed that Iran has greatly expanded its highly enriched uranium stockpile, reducing the time to build a nuclear weapon. The US has pushed back with more sanctions on Iran's oil sector, stepping up its "maximum pressure" campaign.

Diplomatic efforts and European involvement

European partners, such as Britain, France, and Germany, have met secretly with Iran in Geneva. They have threatened to invoke the "snapback" clause in the 2015 nuclear accord, which could reimpose wide-ranging international sanctions. The clause, along with limits on Iran's ballistic missile program, expires in October.

Even with these efforts, Khamenei condemned the US strategy as a misleading publicity stunt. He reaffirmed Iran's position that its nuclear aspirations are for peaceful purposes and rejected being swayed by "bullying governments."

Domestic pressures in Iran

Iran's internal economic struggles have also shaped the situation. The nation's currency has depreciated significantly, and widespread electricity shortages have triggered public unrest. President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected on a platform advocating for economic improvement and sanctions relief, faces mounting pressure to navigate these challenges. However, any significant shift in policy remains contingent on Khamenei’s approval.

Outlook remains uncertain

While Trump contends Iran's economic distress increases the chances of it agreeing to a deal, Iran has thus far been little disposed to acquiesce to American terms. The simultaneous strategy of negotiating and ramping up sanctions complicates the potential for resolution. While both sides prepare for the possibility of further escalation, European and Gulf mediators' diplomacy could hold the key to resolving the next chapter of US-Iran relations.