Will Pakistan be dragged into Iran war? Why Saudi defence pact puts Asim Munir in a bind

The deal effectively formalised long-standing military ties between the two countries and expanded cooperation in defence and security matters.

Pakistan faces a dilemma as its defence pact with Saudi Arabia could draw it into the Iran-Israel-US conflict. While analysts doubt direct military involvement, Pakistan risks strained ties with Iran and regional instability if it sides with Riyadh.

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As the Iran-Israel-United States conflict intensifies, attention has turned to a country geographically far from the battlefield but deeply entangled in the region’s security architecture: Pakistan. The question being asked in diplomatic circles is whether Islamabad could be pulled into the conflict because of its close strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia.

The possibility stems from a defence pact signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025 that commits both countries to treat an attack on one as an attack on both. While analysts believe Pakistan may avoid direct military involvement, the agreement has created a situation in which Islamabad’s strategic calculations could drag it into a war that it neither started nor controls.

The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact

The key factor behind speculation about Pakistan’s role is the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed between Islamabad and Riyadh last year.

The pact states that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” according to statements issued after the agreement was signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The deal effectively formalised long-standing military ties between the two countries and expanded cooperation in defence and security matters. Analysts have noted that the agreement potentially places Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s security umbrella, which could involve the resources of Pakistan’s powerful military.

Pakistan has historically maintained a military presence in Saudi Arabia, and the pact suggests a deeper involvement in the kingdom’s security arrangements.

Iran’s strikes raise the stakes

The issue has become more pressing after Iran launched drone and missile strikes against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the United States and Israel attacking Iranian targets. These strikes have hit locations including energy facilities and other strategic sites inside the kingdom.

According to reports, even a relatively small Iranian drone attack on Saudi territory could theoretically trigger the defence pact with Pakistan.

That raises an uncomfortable question for Islamabad. Would it be willing to enter a major regional war thousands of kilometres away simply because its Gulf ally is under attack?

Pakistan’s warnings to Iran

Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar has already sent a warning signal to Tehran. He conveyed a message to his Iranian counterpart cautioning Iran against attacking Saudi Arabia, a move that could force Pakistan to reconsider its position in the conflict.

The message reflects Islamabad’s attempt to prevent a scenario in which the defence pact compels it to take sides in the escalating war.

Why Pakistan is in a strategic dilemma

Despite its rhetorical support for Saudi Arabia, Pakistan faces serious constraints that make direct involvement risky.

The country is dealing with economic instability, domestic security challenges and fragile relations with neighbours. Entering a high-intensity war in the Middle East would stretch Pakistan’s already limited military and financial resources.

Analysts cited by NDTV believe that Pakistan is unlikely to deploy forces directly into the conflict. Instead, it may support Saudi Arabia diplomatically or through military coordination without formally joining the war.

Even that limited role could have consequences. Any perception that Pakistan is siding with Riyadh against Tehran could worsen tensions with Iran, a neighbour with whom Pakistan already has a complicated and sometimes volatile relationship.

Nuclear shadows over the pact

Another reason the Saudi-Pakistan pact has drawn attention is speculation about a possible nuclear dimension.

Pakistan is the only nuclear armed Muslim majority state, and some analysts have suggested that the agreement could extend a form of deterrence to Saudi Arabia. However, officials have avoided confirming any such arrangement, leaving the details deliberately ambiguous.

This ambiguity adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile regional crisis.

A risky balancing act

Pakistan’s leadership now faces a delicate balancing act. On one hand, it has deep political and military ties with Saudi Arabia, a major financial supporter of Islamabad. On the other hand, entering the conflict would expose Pakistan to serious geopolitical risks.

The defence pact with Riyadh may have been intended as a signal of strategic partnership, but the Iran war has turned it into a potential liability.

Instead of projecting strength, the agreement has placed Pakistan in a position where its choices could either alienate Iran or expose the country to a conflict far beyond its borders.