One crisis, two chokepoints: Strait Of Hormuz disruption raises a new question. Could Bab el-Mandeb be next?

Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in East Africa.

Amid escalating West Asia tensions, analysts warn Iran may target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, risking further disruption to global energy and trade. The Hormuz closure has already caused historic oil supply shocks and market volatility, raising fears of wider crisis.

Did our AI summary help?

As tensions continue to escalate in West Asia, speculation is growing that the conflict could expand beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Reports circulating among analysts suggest that Tehran’s military planners may consider targeting another critical maritime chokepoint if hostilities intensify further.

According to emerging discussions within strategic circles, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, could become a new pressure point in global energy and trade routes if Iran decides to broaden the confrontation. While there has been no official confirmation of such a move, the possibility alone has alarmed energy markets already shaken by the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz crisis has already triggered historic supply shock

The global oil market is currently facing what analysts describe as the largest supply shock in modern history following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day normally pass through this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes. The disruption has sharply reduced exports from major oil producers and pushed energy prices higher across international markets.

Data highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter shows how the current shock dwarfs previous historical disruptions.

• Hormuz closure in the current crisis has disrupted about 20 million barrels per day
• Iranian Revolution in 1978 disrupted 5.5 million barrels per day
• Yom Kippur War in 1973 disrupted 4.5 million barrels per day
• Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 disrupted 4.3 million barrels per day
• Iran-Iraq War in 1980 disrupted 4 million barrels per day
• Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted 2 million barrels per day

Analysts say the present disruption alone is roughly equal to the combined supply losses from these five major crises.

Oil prices have already crossed $100 per barrel, reaching their highest levels since 2022 and triggering volatility across global financial markets.

What is Bab el-Mandeb

Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in East Africa. The passage connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal and Mediterranean shipping routes.

The strait is only about 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, making it highly vulnerable to disruption during military conflicts.

Every year millions of barrels of oil and enormous volumes of global trade pass through this corridor as ships travel between Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Because of its location, Bab el-Mandeb acts as a critical link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.

If the strait were to become unsafe or blocked, vessels travelling between Asia and Europe would have to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, dramatically increasing shipping times and costs.

Why Bab el-Mandeb matters even more after Hormuz disruption

With the Strait of Hormuz already facing severe disruptions, the potential closure of Bab el-Mandeb would compound the crisis.

Hormuz primarily affects oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Bab el-Mandeb affects not only energy shipments but also a vast portion of global container trade moving between Asia and Europe.

If both chokepoints were compromised simultaneously, the result could be one of the most severe disruptions to global supply chains in modern history.

Energy shipments from the Middle East that manage to bypass the Gulf could still face difficulty reaching European markets if the Red Sea route becomes unsafe.

Global markets already reacting to supply fears

Financial markets across Asia have already begun to react to the worsening energy situation.

Oil prices surged above $110 per barrel, triggering sharp sell offs across major stock markets.

South Korea’s Kospi index plunged more than 8 percent, forcing a temporary trading halt after circuit breakers were triggered.

Technology stocks led the decline, with major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recording double-digit losses.

Japan’s Nikkei index also dropped sharply, falling more than 6 percent amid fears of a wider economic fallout from the energy shock.

Investors have shifted toward safe haven assets such as the US dollar as uncertainty spreads across global markets.

A dangerous escalation scenario

For now, the possibility of Bab el-Mandeb being drawn into the conflict remains speculative. However, analysts warn that the mere prospect highlights how fragile global energy and trade networks have become during the crisis.

If tensions escalate further and another chokepoint comes under threat, the world could face an unprecedented disruption affecting energy markets, shipping routes and global economic stability.