Iran unrest and Trump’s warning: Will the US strike, how will Tehran retaliate and can the regime survive?

Iran unrest tests US resolve and regime

Amid mounting unrest in Iran, US President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that “help is on its way”, fuelling speculation about possible American intervention. The remark came as nationwide protests intensify and reports of mass casualties continue to emerge.

US Senator Lindsey Graham later suggested that Trump’s reference to “help” could include military or cyber options, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told closed-door meetings that the administration is weighing non-kinetic measures, including cyber actions, according to Axios.

Trump has also said he cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials “until the senseless killing of protesters stops”. He urged demonstrators to continue their movement and “take over your institutions”, comments Tehran has described as blatant interference in its internal affairs.

Speaking to reporters, Trump said Washington was still assessing the scale of the violence. “The killing looks like it’s significant, but we don’t know yet for certain… we’ll act based on what we learn,” he said, while calling on Iran’s leadership to “show humanity”.

Escalating unrest and rising death toll

Iran’s clerical establishment is facing its most serious challenge since 2022. A rights group said on Sunday that more than 500 people had been killed in the unrest, while an Iranian official indicated on Tuesday that the figure could be closer to 2,000.

“This cycle of horrific violence cannot continue. The Iranian people and their demands for fairness, equality and justice must be heard,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said in a statement read out by UN spokesperson Jeremy Laurence.

Human rights organisations report that Iran is preparing to execute its first protester since the latest wave of demonstrations began. According to the New York Post, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani is scheduled to be hanged after his arrest during protests in Karaj. The National Union for Democracy in Iran said the man’s “only crime is calling for freedom for Iran”.

Data from the Human Rights Activists News Agency shows that more than 600 protest gatherings have taken place across all 31 provinces, with over 18,000 detentions confirmed. The agency also reported 2,403 protester deaths, including 12 children.

Likely Iranian responses to US action

If the US carries out military strikes, analysts say Iran is unlikely to remain passive, even if it initially seeks to limit escalation. Tehran has previously used short- and medium-range missiles against US forces and could target American bases in Iraq, Syria or the Gulf.

Iran may also activate allied groups such as Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah or the Houthis to strike US or Israeli interests. Disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains another powerful option, given its importance to global energy supplies.

Cyber retaliation is also a significant possibility. Iran has invested heavily in cyber capabilities, raising the prospect of attacks on US civilian infrastructure, including energy and financial systems, without direct military confrontation.

Constraints on regime change through force

Experts caution that US strikes alone are unlikely to dismantle Iran’s ruling system. The Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guard have survived decades of sanctions, covert operations and proxy conflicts.

Military action could even strengthen hardliners by reinforcing claims that external pressure justifies repression. While protests since 2025 have dented the regime’s legitimacy, they remain fragmented and lack unified leadership.

Iran’s security forces, clerical networks and power structures remain deeply entrenched, making sudden political transformation unlikely without major internal defections and sustained mass mobilisation.

The Reza Pahlavi factor

Against this backdrop, US officials have quietly engaged with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah. Axios reported that White House envoy Steve Witkoff met Pahlavi to discuss the protests.

In a video message posted on X, Pahlavi told Iranians: “My compatriots, as I told you in my previous message, the world not only saw and heard your courage and voice but is taking action. By now, you have undoubtedly heard the message from the President of the United States. Help is on the way.”

However, many Iranians remain sceptical of monarchy, viewing it as another form of authoritarian rule. Pahlavi has limited influence inside Iran, and there is no clear constitutional framework for restoring a monarchy. Major powers, including the US, are also wary of backing a figure seen as foreign-imposed.

Regional and global implications

Tehran has responded angrily to Trump’s remarks. Ali Larijani accused the US and Israel of being the “main killers of the people of Iran”, naming Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iran’s defence minister warned that any attack would trigger a “forceful” response, including strikes on US bases and Israel. Trump dismissed the threat, saying Tehran “better behave”.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Trump to “manage his own country”, accusing him of encouraging unrest while ignoring domestic problems.

Any US–Iran confrontation risks destabilising the Middle East, disrupting oil markets through the Strait of Hormuz, and deepening geopolitical divisions involving Russia, China and the EU.