India–Pakistan and Pakistan–Afghanistan conflicts could reignite in 2026: US think tank flags Islamabad-backed terror

(FILES) An Indian Border Security Force (BSF) personnel stands guard near the India-Pakistan Wagah border post, about 35kms from Amritsar on May 6, 2025. (Photo by Narinder NANU / AFP)

A US think tank warns of a moderate risk of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026 due to increased terrorist activity, with Pakistan’s support for militants fueling regional instability and raising concerns for American interests.

Did our AI summary help?

Disputes between India and Pakistan could escalate into another round of armed conflict in 2026, according to a new assessment by the US-based think tank Council on Foreign Relations. The group has categorised the risk as a “moderate likelihood” with a “moderate impact” on American interests.

In its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report, the CFR flags Pakistan’s continued role in fuelling regional instability, warning of a “moderate likelihood” of a “renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.”

The assessment comes months after India and Pakistan were locked in a brief but intense four-day confrontation in May. That escalation followed India’s launch of Operation Sindoor, which targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam.

Although Islamabad subsequently called for a ceasefire, Pakistani leaders have continued to issue provocative statements. Indian security agencies have also warned that the underlying threat remains intact. Despite the absence of a major terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir since May, intelligence inputs indicate that more than 30 Pakistani terrorists were active in the Jammu region during the winter months, underscoring Pakistan’s continued use of terrorism as an instrument of policy.

The CFR report further highlights Pakistan’s growing volatility on its western frontier. It notes a “moderate likelihood” of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026, though it assesses the potential impact on American interests as low. According to the report, there is a “moderate likelihood” of “renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks.”

These warnings align with an assessment released last week by the United States Department of Defense, which flagged the persistence of Pakistan-based militant networks and the risk of cross-border terrorism destabilising South Asia. The Pentagon’s findings reinforced concerns that Pakistan has failed to dismantle terror infrastructure operating from its soil, increasing the chances of regional flare-ups involving both India and Afghanistan.

Together, the CFR and Pentagon assessments paint a bleak picture for Pakistan’s neighbourhood in 2026, with Islamabad’s continued tolerance of extremist groups emerging as a central driver of instability and conflict.