The United States and Iran may be heading toward rare direct talks after weeks of escalating threats that had pushed the two countries to the brink of conflict. Senior US and Iranian officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday in discussions aimed at de-escalating the crisis, according to multiple regional and Iranian officials familiar with the planning.
If the talks go ahead, they would mark a significant shift in approach by Donald Trump, who in recent weeks had openly threatened military action against Iran. The sudden diplomatic turn has raised a key question across the region. Trump appeared ready to attack Iran. Why is he now seeking a deal?
A rare US-Iran meeting in the works
Officials said the planned talks would bring together Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Senior officials from Turkey, Qatar and Egypt are also expected to attend.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly. They included an Arab official, a regional official, a senior Iranian official and a former Iranian diplomat.
Trump’s Threats Pushed the Region to the Edge
Only weeks ago, Trump’s rhetoric toward Iran was sharply confrontational. He repeatedly warned that the US would bomb Iran if it did not meet his demands, including ending its nuclear program, limiting its ballistic missiles and halting support for proxy militias.
The threats came amid unrest inside Iran, where protests were crushed with lethal force. Tehran responded by refusing negotiations under pressure and warning of severe retaliation if attacked.
Relations had already been deeply strained since Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term. Over the past year, tensions worsened further, with military posturing on both sides.
Warships deployed as Trump spoke of a deal
Even as diplomatic channels quietly opened, Trump publicly emphasised US military strength. The United States deployed a strike force group to the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln.
“We have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there, very close, and in a couple of days, hopefully, we’ll make a deal. If we don’t make a deal, then we’ll find out whether or not he was right,” Trump said.
Earlier, he described an armada heading to West Asia. “We have a lot of ships going that direction, just in case … I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely,” Trump told reporters after Davos.
Trump’s shifting tone on Iran
Trump’s position has shifted repeatedly since late December.
At the end of December, he claimed Iran was “building up its nuclear weapons” again, despite US intelligence assessments not supporting that conclusion. Meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar a Lago, Trump said, “We’ll knock the hell out of them. But, hopefully, that’s not happening.” He added that future strikes would be “more powerful than the last time”.
In January, as protests erupted in Iran, Trump vowed support for demonstrators. He said the US was “locked and loaded” and posed with a “Make Iran Great Again” hat. He warned that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters”, the US would “come to their rescue”, adding that the “USA stands ready to help”.
Days later, his tone softened. By mid January, Trump said, “the killing in Iran is stopping … and there’s no plan for executions”. A week later, he again warned of military readiness, saying ships were heading toward the region.
On January 28, Trump issued another threat, saying the armada was “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfil its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary”. He warned Tehran it must “make a deal” and said it would have “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS”.
Why Trump pulled back from the brink
According to The Guardian, Trump’s change in approach came after he was presented with multiple military strike options and found them unconvincing. There were also growing concerns among US allies in West Asia that any attack could trigger a regional war.
Iran made its position clear. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that escalation would not be contained.
“The Americans should know if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” Khamenei said. “That Americans sometimes talk about war, saying we will come with warships and aircraft, is nothing new. The Iranian nation is not affected by such talk. They shouldn’t try to intimidate the Iranian nation with such things.”
He later added, “We are not the initiators of war. We do not seek to oppress anyone. We do not seek to attack any country. However, anyone who seeks to attack or cause harm will face a decisive blow from the Iranian nation.”
Khamenei’s senior adviser Ali Shamkhani was even more explicit.
“Any military action by the United States, from any location and at any level, will be considered the start of a war,” Shamkhani said. “The response will be immediate, comprehensive and unprecedented. The aggressor, the heart of Tel Aviv and all those who support the aggressor will be targeted.”
Regional diplomacy steps in
Behind the scenes, regional powers moved quickly to prevent conflict.
Araghchi visited Istanbul last week for talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also spoke with Araghchi and Witkoff to “work toward achieving calm, in order to avoid the region slipping into new cycles of instability”.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Iran’s President Pezeshkian that the Kingdom “will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran or for any attacks from any party, regardless of their origin”. The United Arab Emirates echoed similar concerns.
The business case against war
Experts say economics also played a role in Trump’s recalibration.
Shahram Akbarzadeh of Deakin University told Al Jazeera that Iran is relying on regional pressure to influence Trump. “They hope that building pressure on Trump would change his mind,” he said. “A concerted effort by regional powers could make an impression on Trump, especially if it is made clear to him that war is bad for business.”
“Regional insecurity will have an adverse impact on the supply of oil to the global economy, which will create a ripple effect across the world. The US economy will also be affected.”
China and Russia also weighed in. Beijing warned that “any military adventurism will only push the region into an abyss of unpredictability”, while Moscow said a US strike would “destabilise the Middle East”.
From bomb threats to bargaining table
For now, Trump appears to have stepped back from the edge of war. The planned Istanbul talks suggest a recognition that military action could spiral far beyond control, dragging the entire region into conflict.
Whether diplomacy succeeds remains uncertain. But one thing is clear. Trump entered this standoff threatening bombs and armadas. He is now searching for a deal.
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