CIA sees Cuba in deepening crisis, but stops short of backing Trump’s ‘ready to fall’ claim

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I don't know if they're going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income," he said.

• US intel: Cuba's economy strained but not near collapse
• Loss of Venezuelan oil worsens Cuba's energy crisis and economic hardship
• CIA reviews say economic misery may not lead to immediate political instability

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US intelligence agencies have drawn a bleak picture of Cuba’s economic and political health, but their internal evaluations stop short of backing President Donald Trump’s claim that recent US military action in Venezuela has left the Cuban government on the brink of collapse, according to three people familiar with the classified findings.

Reuters reported that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has assessed that crucial pillars of Cuba’s economy, including farming and tourism, are under intense pressure. Chronic power outages, long-standing trade restrictions and structural weaknesses have all taken a toll. The likely reduction in oil supplies and other forms of assistance from Venezuela -- Cuba’s closest regional partner for decades -- could further complicate the task of governing for the leadership that has remained in power since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution.

Despite the severity of the economic distress, the most recent intelligence reviews did not reach a firm conclusion on whether these conditions would translate into political instability or the downfall of the government, Reuters quoted sources as saying, requesting anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the material.

Those assessments contrast with the confident public tone struck by Trump and senior members of his administration, who have argued that cutting off Venezuelan oil flows after the operation in Caracas could finally unseat the authorities in Havana -- a long-held objective for Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I don't know if they're going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

Requests for comment sent to the White House, the CIA and Cuba’s foreign ministry went unanswered, reported Reuters. It also said that the news agency was also unable to confirm whether the intelligence agency had produced a fresh assessment following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces last weekend.

Venezuela has historically been Cuba’s main source of oil. Since Maduro’s detention, Washington has persuaded interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez to divert nearly all of the country’s crude exports to the United States. Analysts say that even before this shift, Cuba’s energy outlook was dire, suggesting the economic impact of losing Venezuelan supplies will be profound.

Cuba’s state-run system has struggled for decades under tight central control and a U.S. embargo. In recent years, those chronic problems have been magnified by Venezuela’s own economic decline and a sharp fall in tourist arrivals after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Officials familiar with the intelligence described conditions on the island as extremely harsh, though they differed on how close the situation is to the “Special Period” of the 1990s, when the collapse of Soviet support plunged Cuba into deep hardship. One source said the current crisis had not yet reached that level, while another pointed to power cuts averaging 20 hours a day outside Havana -- an unprecedented situation.

The CIA assessments also highlight uncertainty over whether economic misery necessarily sparks political change. Two U.S. officials said Washington believes Cuba has suffered a major demographic drain, with large numbers of people under 50 leaving the country. That exodus may sap momentum for reform movements, which often rely on younger generations.

Although Cuba’s last census put the population above 10 million in 2023, one official estimated it has since fallen below 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a longtime U.S. national security official and professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego, said conditions on the island were “certainly very bad.” He noted that President Miguel Díaz-Canel lacks the broad legitimacy once enjoyed by Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don't think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”