MC EXCLUSIVE 'China and Russia are signalling deterrence': Iran turmoil hardens regional blocs

China, Russia back Iran amid unrest

As Iran’s internal unrest intensifies under economic collapse and political strain, the crisis is increasingly reshaping external alignments rather than isolating Tehran. According to former diplomat Anil Trigunayat, China and Russia are closing ranks with Iran, hardening geopolitical blocs across West Asia at a moment of heightened volatility.

While Western pressure has deepened Iran’s economic pain, Beijing and Moscow are stepping in as strategic stabilisers — economically, diplomatically and militarily — complicating any attempt to coerce or corner Tehran.

China’s oil lifeline and strategic signalling

Trigunayat underlined China’s central role in sustaining Iran’s economy, particularly through continued oil purchases despite sanctions.

“As far as China is concerned, China is a very close partner of Iran. It has been buying a lot of Iranian oil in sustaining the economy of Iran,” he said.

He noted that with Venezuela increasingly constrained, China is likely to deepen its reliance on Iranian crude. “Now with Venezuela nearly closed, I think they will likely want to import more from Iran,” Trigunayat added.

Beyond economics, Beijing has also issued clear strategic signals. China, he said, has warned against “adventurism” targeting Iran, indicating that Tehran is not without powerful backers even as unrest grows at home.

Russia–China military alignment raises the stakes

Economic backing is being reinforced by visible military coordination. Trigunayat pointed to expanding defence cooperation involving Iran, China and Russia.

“China and Russia are supporting Iran openly,” he said, noting reports of joint naval exercises and growing strategic coordination. “Already they are doing naval exercises together.”

Such moves, he argued, demonstrate that Iran’s crisis is no longer just a domestic issue but part of a broader geopolitical contest, where pressure on Tehran risks triggering counter-alignment rather than compliance.

This convergence, he suggested, limits the effectiveness of isolation strategies and increases the risk of militarisation across key maritime routes.

Hardening blocs, not an isolated Iran

Contrary to assumptions that sustained unrest weakens Iran’s external standing, Trigunayat argued the crisis may instead solidify rival power centres.

“The Iranians are also leaving no option off the table,” he said, stressing that Tehran is unlikely to “completely surrender everything” despite sanctions and internal pressure.

With China and Russia openly backing Iran, the crisis risks reinforcing bloc-based geopolitics — pitting Western pressure against an emerging counter-axis that sees Iran as a strategic partner rather than a pariah.

Implications for West Asia’s stability

Trigunayat warned that this alignment has serious implications for regional security. The presence of major powers on opposing sides increases the danger of miscalculation, especially amid heightened enforcement actions in energy and shipping corridors.

Any escalation, he cautioned, could destabilise the region far beyond Iran’s borders — affecting energy flows, trade routes and geopolitical balances across West Asia.

“The situation is still volatile and in flux,” Trigunayat said. “Things could go either way.”

His assessment suggests that as Iran’s internal crisis deepens, external backing from China and Russia may not resolve Tehran’s domestic challenges — but it does raise the strategic stakes for the region and reduce the space for simple diplomatic outcomes.