Canada wary of US coercion as Trump rhetoric and actions raise alarm

Canada unsettled by US coercive power

Fears of US coercion are resurfacing in Canada amid recent actions and rhetoric by US President Donald Trump, including a US military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and renewed threats towards Denmark over Greenland. Trump’s earlier remarks about making Canada the “51st state” have also regained traction, fuelling unease north of the US border.

The anxiety has been reinforced by growing debate within Canada over whether Washington could resort to military or economic pressure. Canadian academic Thomas Homer-Dixon warned that deterrence depends on “changing the calculus,” arguing that any attempt at coercion must be made “enormously costly.”

Analysts say Canada’s concerns are heightened by parallels with Greenland, as both are democratic Arctic nations and members of NATO—an alliance Trump has repeatedly sought to dominate. Wesley Wark, a former Canadian government adviser on security and border issues, described recent US actions as a “final wake-up call” for Ottawa, warning that the United States “is not the country that it used to be.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who came to power pledging to stand up to Trump, has since adopted a more cautious diplomatic approach. His government has focused on diversifying trade ties, particularly with China, to reduce dependence on the United States. While Carney recently said the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark should be respected, he avoided directly addressing Trump’s past remarks about Canada.

Most experts agree that direct US military action against Canada remains unlikely, but warn that economic pressure poses a more realistic threat. Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor at Carleton University and a former national security analyst, said Washington could be willing to “cripple the Canadian economy” to advance the president’s priorities, particularly after asserting control over Venezuela’s oil resources.

Another risk scenario could arise if Canada were to rely heavily on US assistance during a crisis, such as a major natural disaster or a threat to electricity supplies. In such cases, Philippe Lagassé of Carleton University warned that the United States could intervene and then use its presence to extract concessions.

Attention is also focused on the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Canada sends about 70% of its exports to the US, with roughly 85% of bilateral trade tariff-free under the deal. Analysts warn that even the threat of removing tariff exemptions could deal a severe blow to Canada’s economy, making trade leverage one of Washington’s most powerful tools.