Canada tightens immigration: What permit expiry wave means and why Indians could be the biggest casualties

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Canada faces a surge in undocumented immigrants as over 1.9 million work permits expire by 2026 under stricter immigration rules. Indians, the largest affected group, risk losing legal status due to fewer pathways to stay, sparking protests and rising tensions.

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Canada is heading toward a potential undocumented immigration crunch, with Indians expected to be the single largest group affected, as hundreds of thousands of work permits expire under a sharply tightened immigration regime introduced by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Data accessed by Hindustan Times suggests that the scale and speed of permit expiries are unprecedented in Canada’s modern immigration history.

A surge in expiring work permits

According to figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada cited by Hindustan Times, around 1.05 million work permits expired by the end of 2025. Another 927,000 permits are set to expire in 2026. The data was obtained by Mississauga based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah, who warned that Canada has never faced permit expiries on this scale.

When a work permit lapses, the individual immediately loses legal status unless they secure another visa, transition to permanent residency, or successfully apply for restoration within a 90-day window. Those pathways, however, have narrowed dramatically due to policy changes aimed at curbing immigration, particularly in temporary and non-permanent categories.

Why Indians are most exposed

Indians form the backbone of Canada’s temporary workforce and international student population, making them disproportionately vulnerable to the policy shift. Seirah told Hindustan Times, “It’s going to get very chaotic,” adding that the first quarter of 2026 alone could see nearly 315,000 permits expire, compared to around 291,000 in the final quarter of 2025.

By mid 2026, Seirah estimates that Canada could have at least two million undocumented immigrants, with Indians accounting for roughly half. He described this as a “very conservative estimate,” given how limited legal options have become.

Signs of stress are already visible. Seirah said tent encampments have begun appearing in wooded areas of Brampton and Caledon in the Greater Toronto Area. Brampton-based journalist Nitin Chopra, who documented one such encampment, told Hindustan Times there is anecdotal evidence of out-of-status Indian migrants working for cash. He also flagged the emergence of informal operators who allegedly arrange marriages of convenience as a way to secure legal status.

Fewer legal exits, higher risk of illegality

Under current rules, temporary residents whose permits expire have 90 days to apply for restoration. During this period, they are barred from working, application fees are high, and processing can take months. With expiry numbers rising sharply, many migrants face an impossible choice between leaving Canada or slipping into illegality.

Activist groups have begun mobilising in response. The Naujawan Support Network, which campaigns for migrant worker rights, has announced plans to hold protests in January, highlighting the lack of viable pathways for workers whose permits are expiring.

What changed under the Carney government

The risk has been compounded by a sweeping policy reset under the Carney administration. The government has announced strict caps on immigration until 2028, covering permanent residents, international students, temporary workers, and refugees.

Permanent residency targets are set to fall to 380,000 in 2026. The intake of temporary foreign workers will be cut sharply, while student visas and refugee admissions are also being reduced. In September, the government announced a major overhaul of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

Carney said Canada needed “a focused approach” to immigration that better aligns with labour market needs and eases pressure on housing, infrastructure, and social services. He also pledged to reduce the share of non permanent residents from about 7 percent of the population to 5 percent by the end of 2027.

Why Canada is tightening immigration

Canada’s shift marks a significant departure from its recent past. Between 2022 and 2023, the country admitted nearly 1.2 million newcomers, including permanent residents, international students, and temporary workers. This surge drove the fastest population growth since the 1950s but also strained housing, healthcare, and public services.

Public opinion has turned sharply. A survey by the Angus Reid Institute found that 28 percent of Canadians are seriously considering leaving their province due to housing affordability. Another poll by Ekos showed that 44.5 percent of Canadians blame high immigration levels for the housing crisis.

Healthcare pressures have intensified as well. Emergency rooms across Canada are operating beyond capacity amid shortages of doctors and clinics, a problem worsened by rapid population growth.

External pressures have also played a role. Calls from the United States under President Donald Trump to rein in immigration and trade imbalances have added to the urgency for Ottawa to demonstrate tighter border and migration controls.

A looming undocumented population crisis

For now, Canada insists the measures are necessary to restore balance. But immigration experts warn that the combination of mass permit expiries, shrinking legal pathways, and slow processing risks creating exactly what the policy aims to prevent.

If even a fraction of those losing status remain in Canada, the country could soon face one of the largest undocumented populations in its history, with Indians bearing the brunt of the fallout.