After Iran and Venezuela, Kim Jong Un faces a strategic choice on Trump

Kim Jong Un

In North Korea, the war unfolding in Iran is being watched with unusual attention. State media condemned the US and Israeli strikes as aggression but noticeably avoided reporting the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

That silence reflects how carefully Pyongyang controls political narratives. The North Korean system is built around the idea that its leader is invulnerable. Broadcasting the violent death of another authoritarian ruler could undermine that image.

Behind the scenes, analysts believe North Korea’s leadership is studying the conflict in detail, examining how the United States and Israel planned and executed the operation.

For Kim Jong Un, the lessons could shape how he approaches relations with the United States in the coming months, CNN reported.

The message from recent US actions

The Iran campaign follows another dramatic episode earlier this year when US forces captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Taken together, the two events show Washington’s willingness to combine diplomacy with sudden military action.

Security experts say North Korean strategists will be analysing the speed and reach of those operations.

Kim has already signalled that he is watching closely. In recent days he supervised a cruise missile launch from North Korea’s new naval destroyer, a move widely interpreted as a demonstration of military capability.

At the same time, analysts say Pyongyang’s leadership may be debating whether it is safer to reopen communication with Washington rather than remain outside the conversation.

A leader protected by layers of security

Unlike many other governments, North Korea has spent decades designing elaborate security systems around its leadership.

US and South Korean intelligence agencies describe one of the world’s most extensive leader protection networks. Kim travels with multiple layers of guards, uses decoy motorcades and frequently changes venues at the last minute.

Beneath Pyongyang and in remote mountain regions, intelligence reports suggest there are underground command facilities intended to ensure continuity of leadership during wartime.

Even so, the strikes that killed Iran’s leadership are likely reinforcing a hard reality: modern intelligence networks can track even heavily protected targets.

Nuclear weapons change the equation

North Korea believes it holds one crucial advantage that Iran did not. The country is widely thought to possess dozens of nuclear warheads along with missiles capable of reaching the United States.

That nuclear capability serves as the core of Pyongyang’s deterrence strategy. North Korea has written into law the right to use nuclear weapons preemptively and has declared its nuclear status irreversible.

Analysts say this makes any direct military confrontation far more dangerous for adversaries.

Yet nuclear weapons do not eliminate other risks. Intelligence operations, cyber activity and covert missions remain possible even against nuclear powers.

The shadow of the Hanoi summit

The current moment may also revive memories of Kim’s failed summit with Donald Trump in Hanoi in 2019.

At the time, North Korean officials believed a diplomatic breakthrough was within reach. Instead, the meeting ended abruptly without an agreement.

After that setback, Pyongyang gradually shifted its strategy. Diplomatic engagement with Washington faded while missile testing resumed.

North Korea also moved closer to Moscow, forming a strategic partnership with Vladimir Putin and providing artillery, rockets and troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A choice between silence and diplomacy

Even with those alliances, recent events may force Pyongyang to reconsider its approach.

Iran also maintained close ties with both Russia and China, yet neither country intervened directly when the conflict escalated.

That reality could influence how Kim calculates his next move.

For now, the option of dialogue with Washington remains open. The United States has said it is willing to talk without preconditions, while North Korea has suggested that any negotiations must acknowledge its nuclear status.

In Pyongyang’s leadership circle, the question may now be simple: whether engaging Trump reduces the risk of confrontation or whether staying silent is the safer bet.