$18 trillion investment, record market highs, low inflation: Fact-checking Donald Trump's SOTU 2026

US. President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address during a Joint Session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on February 24, 2026, in Washington, DC. (AFP)

• Fact-checkers dispute Trump's $18 trillion investment claim
• US inflation has eased but remains above Fed's 2% target
• Trump overstated decline in US gas prices in his speech

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US President Donald Trump is known to make tall claims and he took every opportunity at his State of the Union address to boast about how much the American economy has improved under his administration. At a time when the world is witnessing unprecedented volatility across all sectors, Trump touted that he had transformed the United States - from trillions of investments to falling inflation.

The US President asserted during his State of the Union address that he has secured $18 trillion in investment commitments since returning to office, stating: "In 12 months, I secured commitments for more than $18 trillion pouring in from all over the globe."

But major US news sites as well as BBC have factchecked the claim. CNN, Washington Post and BBC say that Trump's said figure does not align with publicly available data.

As of the evening of the speech, the White House's own website listed "major investment announcements" totaling $9.7 trillion for his current term. Independent reviews have previously found that even this lower number includes broad or non-binding pledges, references to bilateral trade or economic cooperation rather than direct US investment, and statements that fall short of firm financial commitments.

The US President also brought up his favourite barometer of his success - the stock market rally.

But here's a what the market data shows. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025 and notched 39 record closes, according to CFRA Research. The index posted additional records in January but has since moved largely sideways, gaining just 0.65% so far this year.

Markets have recovered over the past year following volatility linked to tariff tensions in the spring. Gains have been supported by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, solid corporate earnings and some interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

While record levels can boost retirement portfolios, some analysts caution that valuations remain elevated and warn of potential complacency amid geopolitical uncertainty and bubble concerns.

However, the Washington Post said that several international markets have outperformed the US over the same period. Japan's Nikkei 225 has climbed about 50%, while London's FTSE and Canadian equities have also posted stronger gains than US benchmarks.

Factchecking the investment claim, the Washington Post said that Trump's claim that $18 trillion in foreign investment has already flowed into the US is widely viewed as implausible.

For context, annual US gross domestic product stands at roughly $31 trillion, making such an influx within a single year unlikely. Some of the commitments cited are aspirational targets rather than binding agreements.

For instance, a trade arrangement with the European Union includes a goal of $600 billion in US projects by 2028, but EU officials do not control private-sector investment decisions, meaning the figure represents an objective rather than a guarantee.

On inflation, at the start of his speech, Trump compared current conditions to those before he returned to office, saying he inherited inflation "at record levels." Inflation did surge during former President Joe Biden's early years, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which contributed to global price pressures. However, that level was not a historical record. US inflation reached 23.7% in 1920 and was also higher during parts of the 1970s and 1980s.

Inflation has moderated since Trump took office again. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show prices rose 2.4% in the 12 months to January 2026, down from 3% a year earlier, though still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Trump also misstated current US gas prices, claiming they have fallen below $2.30 per gallon in most states - a figure that significantly exaggerates the decline over the past year.

Data from AAA show the national average stood at $2.95 per gallon as of Tuesday. While that marks a drop from $3.14 a year earlier, it remains well above the level cited by the president.