Google’s Gemini could ‘kill’ OpenAI’s API and subscription business, former researcher warns

Google

A former OpenAI researcher has issued a stark warning about the growing threat Google poses to OpenAI’s business, saying the tech giant’s Gemini AI models could potentially “kill” both OpenAI’s API business and its consumer subscriptions if Google pulls ahead in performance or decides to offer its AI for free.

The warning comes amid reports that OpenAI went into “Code Red” mode internally after Google launched Gemini 3.0, its latest and most capable AI model yet. According to people familiar with the matter, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees that improving ChatGPT must become the company’s top priority, even as competitive pressure from Google intensifies.

In comments to Fortune, the former OpenAI researcher said the situation is unusually serious — and notably, one that Altman has been open about inside the company. “It’s pretty remarkable that Sam is so transparent about it,” the researcher said, adding that this is one of the rare moments where leadership has openly acknowledged the scale of the threat from Google.

The biggest concern, according to the researcher, is what happens if Google overtakes OpenAI in raw AI performance. OpenAI’s API business, which allows developers and companies to build products using its models, is a major revenue driver. If Google’s Gemini becomes clearly better — and cheaper — developers could quickly switch. “If Google overtakes OpenAI in performance, it’s basically going to kill OpenAI’s API business,” the researcher warned.

There’s also a second, potentially more damaging scenario. Google could choose to make Gemini entirely free for consumers, using it to strengthen its core products rather than charge users directly. If that happens, OpenAI’s paid ChatGPT subscriptions could struggle to survive. “There’s a chance Google gives Gemini away for free entirely, which could wipe out the consumer subscription business for OpenAI as well,” the researcher said.

Internal memos cited by The Wall Street Journal and The Information show how seriously OpenAI is taking the threat. Altman reportedly told staff that ChatGPT is at a “critical” moment and directed teams to focus on improving speed, reliability and personalisation. Employees working on ChatGPT have also been asked to join daily calls, underlining the urgency inside the company.

Google’s growing advantage lies in what many describe as its full-stack AI ecosystem. Unlike OpenAI, Google controls everything from custom TPU chips used to train AI models cheaply, to Google Cloud infrastructure, and massive consumer platforms such as Search, YouTube, Gmail and Android, which reaches billions of users worldwide.

This allows Google to roll out Gemini at scale and potentially absorb the costs in ways OpenAI cannot easily match.

For now, OpenAI is betting that rapid improvements to ChatGPT will help it stay competitive. But as Google pushes harder — and with the option to undercut rivals on pricing — the warning from insiders makes one thing clear: the AI race is no longer just about better models, but about survival.