Box Office bets on 'Kalki' as Rs 100-cr opener spawns hopes for ailing theatre industry

Kalki expected to be biggest opener of 2024.

Kalki 2898 is like a desi Avenger movie, said Vishek Chauhan, owner of single-screen theatre Roopbani Cinema in Bihar, who is running packed shows of the Telugu movie.

He said the movie has surprised the industry with high traction from the audience right from morning shows even in a Hindi heartland market like Bihar.

"It is predominantly a Telugu film but (box office) numbers are coming from all over India. It is because of the beauty of the casting. Prabhas' presence is helping business across India," said Akshaye Rathi, film exhibitor and director, Saroj Screens.

Kalki, expected to emerge as the biggest opener of 2024 is estimated to bring in around Rs 100 crore on debut. The film has been released in five languages, including Hindi, Telugu, Tamil, Malayalam and Kannada.

Big opening

"From the Hindi version, Rs 25 crore is expected on the opening day, Rs 50 crore in Telugu and adding other languages, it could touch Rs 100 crore. For a film to do Rs 100 crore on day one, it has to be from across the markets," said PVR INOX Executive Director Sanjeev Kumar Bijli, who also announced the opening of a four-screen cinema in Hyderabad coinciding with the release of Kalki.

"Markets like Hyderabad and the whole of South India are excited to open new properties as the propensity to watch films is high, people consume more films. Most of our properties end up doing well in these markets," Bijli said, adding that Kalki's performance is a relief for the entire box office.

The buzz for the movie is so strong that its opening day box office is expected to breach Rs 100 crore mark with collections to the tune of Rs 120 crore and, with overseas sales added, the business is estimated to be Rs 175 crore on first day, said Karan Taurani, senior vice-president of Elara Capital.

He said that Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could account for 80 percent of domestic collections, led by strong buzz and price hikes in Andhra Pradesh. The Andhra Pradesh government on June 24 approved hiking of movie ticket prices for Kalki for the first 14 days of the film's release. Single screen theatres have been allowed to increase the prices by Rs 75, while multiplexes can raise it by Rs 125.

The film's lifetime business at the India box office is expected to be in the range of Rs 400-450 crore.

Shot in the arm

It is a wave of euphoria among exhibitors because after a long time a big-ticket tentpole cinema has come and smashed the box office, said Rathi.

Kalkiis a shot in the arm for not just Hindi box office but also for the Indian film industry as it is the best of the year. "It is heartening to see this kind of traction after 6-7 months of struggle due to lack of film releases. We needed an opener because this year we had successes but not big openers and it (Kalki) is the first big opener of the year," said Chauhan.

He said the traction for Kalki is similar to what exhibitors last saw when the movie Animal, starring Ranbir Kapoor was released in 2023.

"This (Kalki) is the kind of cinema youth wants to watch and this type of cinema is a step in the right direction. It is a blend of mythology with visual effects. It is an event cinema. It is like a desi Avenger, and that is the kind of cinema the youth wants to lap up and that is why we saw high traction for early morning shows which are usually opted by youth. The youth have given a big thumbs up. The families will also eventually end up watching the film as it is a smart commercial cinema. Bringing actors from different industries with the lead star from Telugu--Prabhas, from Tamil film industry there is Kamal Haasan, Hindi there is Amitabh Bachchan and Deepika Padukone big and this is why the appeal of the movie cuts across the country," Chauhan said.

The film promises to be a game-changer in Indian cinema with its innovative storytelling and visual grandeur, said Rahul Puri, MD of Mukta A2 Cinemas. "The mood among the cinema-going audience is electric; there's a palpable excitement and eagerness to experience this epic on the big screen. Fans are looking forward to seeing their favourite stars in a story that pushes the boundaries of cinema," he said.

Puri is expecting a strong occupancy level for Kalki. "Given the advance bookings, we expect near-full houses in the South, with around 80-85 percent occupancy, and a significant increase in the North, aiming for over 35 percent occupancy as word of mouth spreads. This is a substantial improvement from current levels.

In the previous two months, occupancy ranged at 18-20 percent. Rathi said that occupancy is 50-80 percent in most cinemas in Hindi-speaking belt and many theatres are running packed.

Six months of struggle

"We need this momentum to continue. It has been a very bad six months and to recover the losses the exhibitors faced there is a need for a slew of hits," said Rathi.

"Q1 (FY25) was muted because of elections and due to lack of major movies getting released. June has been good with Munjya doing well as a surprise hit. Kalki's release is a start to a great upcoming lineup. Q2, Q3 is looking strong, said Bijli.

While Hindi box office is estimated to decline 34 percent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1 FY25, there may be a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) improvement in Q2 FY25, led by releases, such as Stree 2, Bad Newz, and Sarfira, said Taurani.

He added that the Hindi box office could report a 45 percent YoY decline in the first half of FY25 but some of this negative impact will be offset by a robust Q3 FY25, led by several large ticket Hindi, Hollywood and regional films. "Occupancy levels are estimated to be in the range of 21-23 percent in the first half of FY25, which could accelerate to more than 35 percent in Q3 FY25."

The Hindi box office struggled this year due to a no show by big films. On the other hand, the business of smaller films made a comeback.

"In the first quarter of FY25, small and medium budget films such as Srikanth, Munjya, and Mr and Mrs Mahi reported a better performance than large ticket films, given the size and cost of these films. Small and medium budget Hindi films contributed 40 percent of Hindi box office compared to 30 percent in Q4 FY24," said Taurani.

Small films, big business

Chauhan said that the business of smaller films doing well is the biggest takeaway of the 2024 box office business.

"The audience is back. In 2022, 2023, small films weren't working. They were rejected by the audience from day one. But this year, films like Munjya and Srikanth have worked. The problem with 2024 was that we didn't have big films like Gadar 2 and Jawan. If we had big films then it would have been a robust six months. How can we question the robustness of box office when a small film like Munjya did Rs 100 crore?" Chauhan said.

He added that while exhibitors cannot survive on small films, the audience is back for small films which is good for the future. "We need 5 to 10 movies like Kalki every year and exhibitors will be alive and kicking. The problem lies in the production. Public is ready to watch films."