Study shows clouds drive Earth’s growing heat imbalance more than pollution

Cloud Changes, Not Air Pollution, Fuel Rising Global Heat, Study Finds (Image: Canva)

Scientists on Tuesday warned Earth is absorbing more energy than releasing. A new study links this growing imbalance to changing clouds. The research, published in Science Advances, analysed nearly two decades of data. Satellite observations and atmospheric reanalysis formed the study’s foundation. Researchers say Earth’s energy imbalance continues accelerating global warming trends.

What is driving Earth’s growing energy imbalance

Earth’s climate stays stable when incoming and outgoing energy match. Recent measurements show this balance has shifted dangerously. The planet now traps more heat than before. Scientists initially suspected air pollution played a major role. Aerosols from pollution can reflect sunlight back into space. However, the study found aerosols have limited global impact.

Instead, clouds emerged as the dominant factor influencing warming. Clouds usually cool Earth by reflecting sunlight outward. Researchers found clouds have become less reflective overall. This allows more solar energy to reach Earth’s surface. The shift is linked to surface warming patterns. Natural climate variability also influences cloud behaviour significantly.

The researchers examined satellite records from 2003 to 2023. They found Earth gained heat steadily over time. Energy increased by about half a watt per decade. This gain occurred per square metre across the planet. Increased sunlight absorption drove most of the warming trend.

Why pollution reductions are not the main cause

Air pollution reductions were expected to influence warming strongly. Cleaner air reduces aerosols that block sunlight. In the Northern Hemisphere, aerosol levels have fallen. This allows more sunlight to warm land and oceans. However, this warming effect remains regionally limited.

In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere experienced increased aerosols. Wildfires and volcanic eruptions contributed significantly there. These natural aerosols increased cloud reflectivity. This produced a cooling influence in southern regions. Scientists found these opposing effects largely cancel globally.

Chanyoung Park led the study at the Rosenstiel School. He said this hemispheric balance explains aerosol neutrality globally. The findings were released through an official news statement. Park said cleaner air should not be blamed. He stressed clouds are amplifying warming instead.

What the findings mean for climate planning

The study highlights gaps within existing climate models. Clouds remain one of the hardest elements to predict. Improved understanding could refine future warming projections. Scientists emphasise greenhouse gases still drive long term warming. Carbon emissions remain the primary climate change force.

However, cloud changes are intensifying current temperature increases. This makes short term warming trends stronger. Researchers say clearer communication is now essential. Policymakers need accurate explanations of warming drivers.

The authors urge greater focus on cloud research. Better data may improve climate adaptation strategies. The study suggests future warming could accelerate further. Scientists warn Earth’s energy imbalance shows no signs slowing.