Xi-Zelensky call improves Ukraine’s relations with China but path to peace not clear

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

An hour-long telephone conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday has sparked speculation about whether China could lead Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table to end the war.

This was the first conversation between the two presidents since the war began in Ukraine in February 2021.

Boost to bilateral relations

Zelensky described his conversation with Xi as “long and meaningful.”

The Ukrainian President said on Twitter he believed the call, along with the appointment of an ambassador to Beijing, would “give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations”.

Xi Jinping said as a responsible country China would “neither watch the fire on the other side nor add fuel to the fire, let alone take advantage of the crisis to profit”.

The remarks were seen as a swipe at the United States which has provided the most help towards Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion.

The telephone call between Xi and Zelensky comes amid reports that Ukraine was preparing for an offensive in May to run through the Russian defence to win back its lost territories that are now under Russia’s control, including Crimea.

The French, German and European Union leaders urged Xi Jinping during their recent visit to Beijing to use his influence over Putin to bring him to the negotiating table.

China’s efforts

In March Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow on a two-day visit for a summit with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Xi said China will send a special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian affairs to visit Ukraine and other countries to hold in-depth consultations with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

But the Chinese media has begun to crow that it was the only country in the world that could bring peace to Ukraine.

“Both Russia and Ukraine have welcomed China's efforts to promote peace and talks, and European powers such as France and Germany, as well as EU leaders, also expect that China will play a greater role in promoting peace and talks,” said the Global Times editorial.

It added that China is able to communicate directly with all parties involved, seek consensus, and receive positive responses, precisely because China has always adhered to an objective and fair position and demonstrated its role and responsibility as a major power.

“This role and influence cannot be replaced in today's world,” it said.

Chinese experts said since Ukraine requested China for the phone conversation it demonstrates the great importance the country attaches to ties with China and recognises that it can play a major role in solving the Ukraine crisis.

In February China released a 12-point position paper called “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis.”

But it received a lukewarm response from the West.

Though Chinese commentators pointed out that since China didn’t fuel the flames, provide weapons to either side or attack them, China has the channel to speak to both Russia and Ukraine.

In March the White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the US does not see China as capable of being an impartial mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

On Wednesday Zelensky appointed Pavlo Ryabikin, a former minister of strategic industries, as Ukraine’s new ambassador to Beijing.

Fan Xianrong has been China’s ambassador in Ukraine since 2020.

China has successfully mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran and brokered a deal in March.

The difficulties

However, experts point out that mediating in the Ukraine crisis was much more difficult as the Saudis and the Iranians were not at war against each other.

China has huge economic stakes in Ukraine. The two sides have signed a number of agreements, including one for manufacturing aircraft engines.

China overtook Russia as Ukraine’s top trading partner in 2019 and the bilateral trade reached $19 billion in 2021.

China has also invested over $ 60 billion in Ukraine which is also a key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

However, despite the hype following the telephone conversation between the two presidents, efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table will be extremely tough.

Neither of the two sides would like to come to the talks table from a weak position.

This could lead Russia to hold on to its gains in the face of Ukraine’s desperate attempts to get them back.

This could turn the war more violent and prolonged.

If Ukraine fails to break through the Russian defence soon and get back lost territory, it could be forced to cut its losses and return to negotiations by its Western backers.

But as things stand, an early peace in Ukraine still seems elusive.