The US mid-term polls explained

The November 8 mid-term elections of the Congress or the US parliament, is fundamentally a referendum on the performance of the incumbent president and his government.

It is held every two years when all the 435-member House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) and 35 or about one-third seats of the 100-member Senate (the Upper House of Parliament) seek re-election.

A House Representative typically has a two-year term, while a Senate member’s term is for six years.

Both Houses of Parliament or the US Congress help in legislating laws.

At present President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party has a thin majority in the House of Representatives, with 220 members against 212 of the Republican Party, which is the Opposition. In the Senate too, the Democrats have a majority, but only just — with 51 seats, to 49 seats of the Republicans.

According to poll surveys, though Democrats hold both chambers of Congress, they are likely to lose the House and face an extremely tough fight in retaining their wafer-thin majority in the Senate.

Also, the outcome of the elections will not only determine the composition of the US Congress, but also the power structure in three dozen states.

It will shape the rest of Joe Biden’s presidency, and impact America’s foreign policy and engagement with the outside world.

More importantly, it will set the stage for the 2024 Presidential Elections.

Former President Donald Trump has made it clear that he will announce his candidature for the Presidential election after the mid-term polls.

President Biden is widely believed to become a lame-duck president if, as predicted, he loses both Houses of the Congress under his leadership.

He had earlier indicated that he may seek a second term in 2024. But now, that will depend on the outcome of the mid-term polls.

Biden’s popularity rating is hovering at around 40 percent.

The mid-term polls are yet another example of the checks and balances that are a part of the US Constitution. More than anything, the founding fathers of the constitution wanted to ensure that no president of the country has so much power that he becomes a tyrant.

There are three major branches of government in the US system, each independent of the other. This was done to control the amount of power each branch enjoys.

The logic flowed from preventing one branch of government from having more power over another as the government would then be controlled by one group of people.

The three branches are the legislative, the executive and the judiciary.

The legislative branch is the Congress that includes the House of Representatives and the Senate. They make the laws.

The executive branch is the President of the US. He enforces the laws and proposes new ones. He is also in control of the armed forces and has vetoing power.

The judicial branch, led by the Supreme Court, has the power to analyse the Constitution and review laws.

The separation of power not only prevents accumulation of power to one authority but also allows each of the branches to have power over the other two branches.

For example, President Biden, who was advised by the armed forces not to allow House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in end July, despite sharing that assessment, was unable to stop her from visiting the island. On the contrary, he had to provide her all the security and protection that her position in the system demanded.

The fallout of the visit hardly achieved any foreign policy goals other than further straining Sino-US relations and creating serious tension in the Taiwan Straits for weeks.

The checks and balances in the system are reflected in the way the laws are made in the US. The legislative branch proposes a bill, which is then voted by the Senate. It is then sent to the executive branch for the President to make an assessment if the proposed law is good for the country before consenting to it.

But if he rejects the Bill by using his veto power and sends it back, the legislative branch can override the president’s objection by garnering the support of two-third members of the Congress.

This then becomes a law overriding the president’s objection.

But if the people of the US think it is a bad law, they can get it challenged before the Supreme Court or send for a judicial review to see if it violates the constitution.

Once the court gives its view in favour of the proposed Bill, it becomes a law.

The legislative branch also has the power to remove the president by bringing an impeachment motion against him for not discharging his duties properly.

The legislative branch also has “the power of the purse” which literally means they control the purse strings.

If the President has to go to war or wants to pursue a federal action on an issue he thinks will be good for the people or benefit his party’s standing, it has to pass the scrutiny of the Congress.

Unless the Congress approves the move, the President cannot go to war or push any major initiative that involves a large sum of money.

Another key power of the legislative branch over the executive is that the Senate approves the presidential appointments — his cabinet, plus ambassadors in all key countries and US representatives in major international bodies.

The Senate also has the power to approve or reject all major treaties that the president signs during his tenure.

The Senate also approves the judicial appointments, and like in the case of the president, can impeach the judges.

There are a number of domestic issues that will play an important role in the elections, primarily the rising inflation, the gun culture that has led to several brutal killings in the country, including young children, and anti-abortion law.

But in a highly polarised polity the votes are likely to go along party lines, especially between Trump supporters and those who do not want his return.

On the foreign policy front, the mid-term elections will affect the stand taken by the Biden Administration.

As far as India is concerned the change in the composition of the Congress will not bring about any drastic changes. Over the past decade or so, there has been a bipartisan consensus in the US Congress and administration to build strong and close ties with India.

However, as a lame duck president, Biden, or the rest of his senior cabinet colleagues, will lose the legitimacy to convince their respective interlocutors in other countries about their proposed policy and the mutual benefits from them.

This is essentially because, a loss of both houses of Congress will brighten the chance of Trump’s return, who has proved to be totally unpredictable in pursuing or honouring policies of his predecessors.

Even a loss of the House of Representatives will hamstring the Biden government for the rest of its term, as much of the time in the Congress will be spent fighting and scoring points against each other.

However, if Biden and the Democrats manage to prove all pollsters wrong and to increase their strength in the Congress, then a more robust foreign policy is likely. This will be reflected most in Ukraine and also in the Indo-Pacific where an assertive China’s rise is a major challenge for the US.