The Only Thing That Can Really Save the Subway: Riders

For weeks after the virus descended on New York, the strictest warnings held sway. Businesses shuttered. Thousands of people fled. The only sounds in the streets were wailing ambulance sirens. Many saw it as a death knell for the city, a tearing of fabric that might not be repaired. (Image: AP)

As the coronavirus engulfed New York City early last year, Adrienne Crespo, a subway conductor, watched the crowds on the platforms slowly thin out. Then one afternoon, she pulled an A train into the West Fourth Street-Washington Square station — typically one of the busiest on her line — and saw only two people board.

“To look out there at rush hour and see nobody, it finally hit me,” Crespo, 49, said. “It was actually scary. I thought, ‘Wow, this is bad. This is really, really bad.’”

A year ago the pandemic drained the subway of nearly all its riders, sickened thousands of New York City transit workers and plunged North America’s largest public transit agency into its worst financial emergency ever.

Today ridership on the subway has crept back up to about one-third of its usual levels, from an all-time low of 7% last spring. An infusion of billions of dollars in federal aid has kept the Metropolitan Transportation Authority afloat. And the agency, which operates the subway, buses and two commuter rail lines, was further lifted by another $6 billion in President Joe Biden’s sweeping rescue plan.

But the MTA’s long-term survival depends on the return of riders and their fares, which make up the agency’s largest funding source. Nearly 40% of the agency’s operating revenue comes from fares, a higher percentage than almost any other major U.S. transit system.

Now as the city’s mass vaccination campaign reaches more people and urban life slowly rebounds, public transit officials are confronting a sobering reality: a growing consensus that ridership may never return entirely to its pre-pandemic levels and that the agency will have to reshape and reduce service to reflect new commuting patterns.

Adjusting to a new normal could mean longer waits between trains during what was once considered rush hour and less service on suburban-bound trains, where ridership remains anemic.

With many office workers still working from home, the MTA has already scaled back service on both its commuter rails, Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road, where ridership has plateaued at about a quarter of pre-pandemic levels.

Even as the pandemic subsides, some companies are shifting workplace rules to make at least some remote work a permanent option.

The uncertainty makes projections challenging, but an analysis by McKinsey & Co. commissioned by the MTA found that ridership might eventually reach 80% to 92% of pre-pandemic levels — and not until the end of 2024.

“Commuter culture is going to change,” said Kathryn Wylde, president of the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group. “People are looking for more flexibility and more options, which improves their quality of life. That’s definitely a legacy of the pandemic.”

Although public health experts generally agree that riding trains and buses is not a major risk factor for exposure to the virus, transit experts say some commuters with the means to do so will still likely steer clear and opt for other ways of getting around — like using cars or bikes — that they turned to during the pandemic.

And some commuters have voiced fears after seeing fellow riders flouting the MTA’s mask requirements, even though the agency has handed out millions of free masks.

“It’s difficult for me when people don’t put on the mask,’’ said Manil Molina, a health aide, who has no choice but to ride the subway to get to her job.

The confluence of factors causing riders to turn their back on mass transit risks stalling the region’s recovery, transportation and economic experts warn. A surge of car traffic into Manhattan would cause gridlock and the loss of productivity and higher air pollution that come with increased congestion. And if ridership does not bounce back, the transportation agency could sink back into a financial crisis.

Before the pandemic, no part of the country depended more on mass transit. Eight million people in the New York region — including over 50% of the city’s population — rode public transit every weekday.

“The existential question for the city in the coming years is how do you convince people that transit is safe so they can get back on it,” said Nick Sifuentes, the former executive director of Tri-State Transportation Campaign, an advocacy group.