Moves and countermoves: The Taiwan chessboard is seeing a lot of activity in the runup to the Hiroshima G7 summit

Moves and countermoves: The Taiwan chessboard is seeing a lot of activity in the runup to the Hiroshima G7 summit

Days before the Group of Seven (G7) powerful nations summit in Hiroshima, Japan, Taiwan has begun an extensive online war-gaming exercise to review its readiness to deal with any Chinese attacks or invasion.
On its part, China carried out a 12-day circumnavigation of Japan with its naval flotilla led by a powerful destroyer in a powerful display of military power to warn Tokyo not to get involved in the ongoing crisis between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan.

The G7 summit, which will be held in Hiroshima from May 19 to 21, will discuss regional and global issues, particularly China’s aggressive rise in the Indo-Pacific.

China has since been trying to lower the temperature by highlighting the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland to ensure the possibility of a war over Taiwan does not spark tension in the Group of Seven.

The mixed signals from China over the past week might have stemmed from its assessment that a military conflict with the US and its Asian allies over Taiwan would not be in China’s best interest.

Simulated response

Taiwan kicked off its five days of computerised war games aimed at countering potential attacks by China’s People’s Liberation Army last week under the supervision of US military officials, the South China Morning Post said.

The online war games are part of the island’s annual Han Kuang exercises, simulating responses to threats posed by the PLA amid the recent tension over the Taiwan Strait.

According to the SCMP report, the tabletop drills began at the Hengshan Military Command Centre in Taipei on Monday, Taiwanese military officials said. As in previous years, the exercise will also feature a live-fire segment, which will be staged in July.

“The computer part of the war games is being held 24 hours a day till Friday, testing the coordination between commanders and officers in response to a PLA attack under various scenarios,” a spokesman for the Taiwanese defence ministry said.

China’s circumnavigation of Japan

According to a Japanese defence ministry map, the guided missile destroyer Lhasa, one of the PLA Navy’s most powerful warships, had led a four-ship flotilla that also included a smaller destroyer, a frigate and a supply ship on the clockwise circumnavigation of Japan.
The voyage of the Chinese vessels, which began on April 30, reportedly ended last week.
China’s Global Times said that while the voyage could be seen as a PLA Navy far sea exercise, it could also be read as a message telling Japan to stay away from the Taiwan issue.
In a recent interview, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had described the peace and stability of Taiwan as critical not only for Tokyo but for the whole international community.

Foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo had lodged a protest with Beijing over the Chinese ambassador’s comments that Japan would be “dragged into the fire” if it linked Taiwan to its own security.

Hayashi also said that Japan was in talks to open a NATO liaison office, which will be the first of its kind in Asia.

The Japanese foreign minister said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had repercussions far beyond Europe, forcing Tokyo to rethink regional security.

‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow’

The G7 summit is being held in the backdrop of the Ukraine war and the ongoing Russian offensive against the Ukrainian army.
The Russian invasion and its possible impact on countries in Asia is likely to be in focus during discussions between the G7 leaders.
Experts feel that the Japanese Prime Minister could repeat his earlier position that what is happening to Ukraine today could happen to Taiwan tomorrow.

Opinion among the G7 countries is divided on the course of action that should be taken against China to deter it from attacking Taiwan.
Leaders of major European countries such as France and Germany as well as the European Commission visited China last month to engage with the leadership in Beijing and revive the economic cooperation that had stalled because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the adverse effect of the Ukraine war on supply chains for energy, food and other essentials, and the slowdown of the European economy, has made these countries look at the urgent need to lower the tension over the Taiwan Strait.

The US debt crisis and the trade and global slowdown will also dominate discussions at the Hiroshima summit later this week.
Given this backdrop, how keen the world’s leading economies are to further isolate China at this juncture for its aggressive behaviour will be something to watch for.

Meanwhile, China’s conciliatory attitude on Taiwan has been reflected in articles by Chinese experts.

“Against the backdrop of intensified disputes in the South China Sea, we need to focus more on striving for a peaceful solution to the issue, rather than falling into the vortex of military confrontation,” a Chinese expert wrote.

He added, “More importantly, the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people’s own issue, and we should not leave the problem to external forces to solve it.”
The conciliatory tone may have been deliberately adopted by China to assure the G7 countries that there was no need to hype the Taiwan issue further as Beijing was committed to peaceful means for its reunification.