Maldives elections: Polls to test President Muizzu's anti-India policy amid tensions

President Mohamad Muizzu, elected last year, has pledged to end the country's "India First" policy, putting relations under strain.

Parliamentary election in the Maldives on April 21 will likely put President Mohamed Muizzu's apparent shift away from India, the longtime backer of the upscale tourist destination, and towards China to the test.

Primarily recognised as one of the most sought after tourist destination in South Asia, featuring immaculate white beaches and exclusive resorts, the strategically located island country in the Indian Ocean has evolved into a geopolitical flashpoint.

Global east-west shipping lanes pass the nation's chain of 1,192 tiny coral islands, stretching around 800 kilometres (500 miles) across the equator.

Between January and March of 2024, there were around 40 percent fewer Indian tourists travelling to the Maldives than there were during the same time in 2023. Concurrently, the total number of Chinese tourists rose by nearly 200 percent.

The Maldives' monthly report on tourist arrivals was just provided by the Ministry of Tourism. The data showed how many people visited the island country between January and March of 2024.

President Mohamed Muizzu, 45, emerged victorious in the September presidential election, acting as a stand-in for the pro-China former president Abdulla Yameen, who was released this week after his 11-year prison sentence for corruption was overturned by a court.

As the parliamentary election campaign got underway this month, he gave prominent infrastructure contracts to state-owned Chinese enterprises.

In addition, his government is currently returning home 89 Indian soldiers who fly surveillance planes that New Delhi has given them to use in policing the archipelago's extensive maritime boundaries.

His attempts to realign the archipelago's diplomacy have been thwarted by the present parliament, which is dominated by the pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) of his immediate predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. "Geopolitics is very much in the background as parties campaign for votes in Sunday's election," a senior aide of Muizzu told AFP, asking not to be named.

"He came to power on a promise to send back Indian troops and he is working on it. The parliament has not been cooperating with him since he came to power," the aide further said.

India was the leading tourist destination in the Maldives until December 2023. On January 2, this year, India's ranking started to decline when it was ranked third out of the top 10 countries that make up the bulk of the Maldives' tourist market share. India's position dropped even further to fifth on January 21 before going up to third on March 3.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's attempt to promote Laskhwadeep as a tourist destination caused the Maldives incident in the first week of January, which coincided with the noted drop in Indian tourism. The Maldives' president, Mohamed Muizzu, then requested that India withdraw its soldiers who were stationed there.

Lawmakers have rejected some of Muizzu's expenditure ideas and blocked three of his cabinet nominations since he took office.

One major political party, the People's National Congress (PNC), led by Muizzu, is likely to have split, making it difficult for any one party to secure a majority.

However, Muizzu's chances this week were enhanced by his mentor Yameen's release from house imprisonment this week.

Yameen was sentenced to jail for fraud and money laundering after losing his attempt for reelection in 2018, but a judge in the nation's capital, Male, ordered a retrial in these matters.

Yameen had also backed closer alignment with Beijing while in power but his conviction left him unable to contest last year's presidential poll on his own.

Rather, he proposed Muizzu as a stand-in, and Yameen promised to carry on the ongoing anti-Indian campaign that had aided his ally in winning on Thursday after he left the High Court.

Around 285,000 Maldivians are eligible to vote on April 21, with results likely by early the next day.