Average of US polls shows Donald Trump with a marginal lead: MC Analysis

Average of US polls shows Donald Trump with a marginal lead: MC Analysis

The United States is headed for polls on November 5 to decide which of the two candidates—Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris—will become the forty-seventh president.

While Kamala Harris, the current vice president, got a bump in her ratings after a late nomination—incumbent Joe Biden had bowed out of the race—Donald Trump seems to have edged back, as per Moneycontrol poll of polls based on data from FiveThirtyEight, a US-based analysis and aggregation website of polling insights.

According to MC Poll of polls, Trump seems to be leading by a very narrow margin of 0.5 percentage points among likely voters for polls conducted between October 31 and November 3.

While left-leaning polls, segregated by Moneycontrol based on media bias ratings, seem to indicate a Harris victory in the popular vote, the gap has narrowed over the last two weeks.

The lead has come down from nearly three percentage points to 0.9 percentage points within a month a half.

Right-leaning polls indicate a neck-to-neck fight, with Trump almost tied with Harris, according to Moneycontrol analysis.

Historically, over the last four elections, the western seaboard (west coast) states have leaned Democrat, while the central parts of the country, save Colorado, New Mexico, have been devout Republicans, with ten states having swung to both parties in each of the four polls.

In 2020, Biden was able to carry the swing states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona his way to defeat Trump.

But in 2016, Trump won all these states despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. Vote share for Trump was two percentage points below Hillary.

In the current election, besides these five states, two more, Nevada and Michigan, hold the key. Donald Trump being resident of Florida is likely to carry Florida, whereas Democrats are hoping that former Minnesota Governor and Harris’ running mate will be able to turn Minnesota blue again.

And, the road for either will be tough as the margins are wafer-thin as per surveys.

Pennsylvania is too close to call

Trump is turning Nevada red again

Republicans have maintained their lead in North Carolina

Georgia is also leaning red

Arizona is looking red as well

Wisconsin is on the edge

Michigan might turn blue

There seems to be a clear distinction on what followers are talking about as well. Trump followers have been targeting economy and gun control, whereas Harris’ followers are discussing abortion.

Sentiment tracker built on followers of each presidential candidates shows Trump followers dominating online trends as far as Google searches are concerned.