Spotlight on high fertility states as India’s population projected to surge ahead of China

With the latest United Nations report on global population predicting that India will surpass China in terms of number of people as early as next year, the focus may now shift to five states in the country where the total fertility rate (TFR) is above the replacement level of 2.1.

The World Population Prospects 2022 paper by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, released on July 11, has said that “India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country during 2023.”

India's population is predicted to grow from its current level of 1.4 billion to 1.67 billion in 2050 and to 1.53 billion in 2100, according to the report. It is predicted to reach a zenith of just under 1.7 billion people in 2064, after which it is likely to begin declining.

Interestingly, in his Independence Day speech in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, had called for population stabilisation, after which government think tank NITI Aayog began consultations.

A move to introduce legislation regarding population control, however, soon fell out of favour. Government officials say that whether there will be legislation in a bid to stabilise the population will largely depend on census data that was expected to come out in 2021 but which has been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Estimates by the Union government suggest that India’s population is over 1.4 billion at present and the National Family Health Survey 5, released late last year, showed that the TFR in the country was 2, lower than the replacement level of 2.1.

States with fastest-growing population

The NFHS 5 statistics show that the TFR in five states—Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3) and Manipur (2.2)—is higher than the replacement level. Uttar Pradesh is also the state with the highest population in the country while Bihar stands at number 3, after Maharashtra.

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Sikkim, on the other hand, has the lowest TFR in India—1.1—followed by Jammu and Kashmir (1.4) and Delhi, West Bengal and Punjab (1.6).

“At the moment, different Indian states are at different stages of demographic transition,” pointed out Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India. She emphasised that fertility decline has a direct relationship with education and empowerment of women, access to health services and particularly access to family planning services.

Social activist Manu Gaur, who had helped draft the population control bill, 2019, that was proposed in Parliament by BJP parliamentarian Rakesh Sinha as a private member’s bill, said that a focussed legislation to stabilise population in the parts of the country with high TFR may still be imperative.

“The government, however, will need to examine the census data as existing figures and statistics on population, birth rate and fertility rate are contradictory,” said Gaur.

Unmet need for family planning

Muttreja pointed out, quoting the NFHS 5 figures, that the states with the highest fertility rate also have an unmet need for family planning methods that’s higher than the national average. Meghalaya (26.9 percent), Bihar (13.6 percent) and Uttar Pradesh (12.9 percent), for example, reported the highest total unmet need for family planning in the country.

“To address such variations, there is a need to strengthen access to family planning and sexual and reproductive health services, while also focusing on education and overall socioeconomic development,” she said.

Public health expert Bobby John, who is also a senior consultant with the World Health Organisation, South East Asia Region (WHO-SEARO), underlined that education of girls and women’s employment are key drivers of fertility aspirations.

“When girls and women have full and free say in matters of marriage and timing of their pregnancies, these states will also begin to see fertility declines.”

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Dr John, however, also underlined that targeting fertility decline is a very slippery slope to be on, as many developed countries are now realising.

“Once there is a long-term trend in fertility decline, it’s hard to get it back up. It is sobering to see China trying to get more babies and not quite succeeding,” he added.

Beyond numbers

Going forward, said Muttreja, India should go beyond numbers and think about its people.

According to NFHS-5 data, about 22 million women want to stop or delay childbearing but do not have access to a method of contraception.

“Our focus should be on providing these women access to family planning services,” she said, adding that the country should also capitalise on the large young population as about 30 percent are aged between 10 and 24.

“If we invest in the education and skill of this group, what many consider to be a problem could turn into our biggest strength,” Muttreja stressed.

Debanjana Choudhuri, a gender and climate action activist, said that the most important outcome of knowing the estimates from the UN report is how governments step up in their investment on sexual and reproductive access and take proactive steps to address climate change and look out for the vulnerable and marginalised sections of the society.

According to Dr John, where the fertility rate is falling, and life expectancy is increasing, interstate mobility of individuals and families should be thought through and addressed through the lens of population stabilisation and growth.

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“This will again require a rethinking of education, individual freedoms and community level aspirations,” he said.