Mohan Bhagwat's ‘three-children’ appeal: What numbers reveal about India’s Total Fertility Rate

If population is used correctly, it is not a burden, but rather a means. We have demographic dividend, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said.

In a statement that has stirred political and social debate, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat has called on Indian families to have at least three children, emphasising the importance of maintaining a balanced population. On Sunday, Bhagwat linked the issue to India’s long-term demographic dividend and warned against a potential decline in population growth.

This is not the first time Bhagwat or the RSS has addressed population issues. However, the recent remarks mark a departure from the organisation's earlier focus on a perceived "demographic imbalance" between Hindus and Muslims. Bhagwat’s current stance appears more secular, highlighting the broader implications of falling fertility rates across communities.

Before delving deeper into what the RSS said on the subject and why, here's a look at what statistics suggest.

Numbers tell a complex story

According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) conducted between 2019 and 2021, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has already reached the replacement level of 2.0 children per woman. However, the data reveals disparities across communities.

Hindus: 1.94
Muslims: 2.36
Scheduled Castes: 2.08
Scheduled Tribes: 2.09
Other Backward Classes: 2.02

These figures indicate that while fertility rates among Hindus are below the national rate, Muslims and some marginalised groups have slightly higher rates. This has fueled calls within the RSS for community-specific approaches to population policies.

RSS agenda on population policy

Population control has been a priority for the RSS for years. In his 2022 Vijayadashmi speech, Bhagwat stressed the need for a comprehensive population policy that balances growth and sustainability. He warned against over-controlling population growth, citing the dangers of societal and cultural decline when population growth halts.

“People keep saying that we have too large a population and unless we control its growth, nothing can be achieved. This is not the complete truth. If population is used correctly, it is not a burden, but rather a means. We have demographic dividend. China is getting old. We are going to remain young for the next 30 years,” the RSS chief had said.

He added, “China has gone from population control to encouraging two children per couple. We also have to think about population. How many people can our country feed after 50 years? What should be the share of the working population at that time? What kind of education and healthcare can we provide to people at that time? A comprehensive policy is required.”

Differing views of PM Modi

However, Bhagwat’s recent remarks stand in stark contrast to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 Independence Day address, where he championed small families as a patriotic act. PM Modi warned against the “population explosion” and lauded families practicing population control, suggesting they serve as role models for others.

“This small section of responsible citizens contributes to both their family’s welfare and the nation’s good,” the PM had said, emphasising the need to curb population growth for future generations.

Several states have introduced measures to curb population growth. In Assam, a policy introduced in 2017 prohibits individuals with more than two children from applying for government jobs. Similarly, Uttar Pradesh’s Law Commission proposed in 2023 that families exceeding the two-child norm should lose access to government subsidies.

On the other hand, some southern states are reversing their existing family planning measures to deal with an ageing population. Andhra Pradesh recently scrapped the two-child policy it had adopted in 1994, claiming that the state's TFR had fallen to 1.5. Telangana, which is likely to follow suit, would become the sixth state in the country to revoke the policy after Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh and AP.

Criticism from Opposition

Bhagwat’s suggestion has drawn sharp criticism from opposition parties. In Bihar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari highlighted contradictions within the BJP and RSS on the subject of population control. “BJP leaders often stress population control, while the RSS chief now urges larger families. They need to resolve their contradictions first,” he said.

Congress MP Renuka Chowdhury also questioned the practicality of Bhagwat’s suggestion. Speaking to the media, she said, “Unemployed men struggle to marry because families hesitate to give their daughters to them. Elderly parents are working to support their children due to financial strain. Now Bhagwat wants more children. Are we rabbits to keep reproducing? How many children do those advocating this have themselves?”