India smartphone shipments fall 7% in Oct-Dec quarter as inventory, price pressures bite

Looking into 2026, Omdia expects higher prices and limited incremental hardware differentiation to continue delaying upgrades

• India's smartphone shipments dropped 7% in Q4 2025 due to high inventories, prices.
• Vivo led Q4 2025 with 23% share; Oppo overtook Xiaomi for third place
• Omdia expects further mid-single-digit market decline in 2026

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India’s smartphone market closed 2025 on a softer note, with shipments falling 7% year on year to 34.5 million units in the October–December quarter, according to the latest research from Omdia. The decline reflected a familiar post-festive slowdown, but was amplified this time by elevated channel inventories, a depreciating rupee and weakening mass-market affordability after price hikes driven by rising memory costs. Looking ahead, Omdia expects India’s smartphone market to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2026, as higher prices and limited incremental value delay upgrades, the market tracker said in a report released on January 20.

Despite the broader correction in the December quarter, Vivo retained its leadership position, shipping 7.9 million units and capturing a 23% market share. The brand also held on to the top spot for the full year 2025. Samsung followed in second place with 4.9 million units and a 14% share. Oppo (excluding OnePlus) overtook Xiaomi to secure third place with 4.6 million units and a 13% share, while Xiaomi and Apple shipped 4.2 million and 3.9 million units, respectively.

For the full year 2025, India’s smartphone market shipped 154.2 million units, marking a modest 1% annual decline. While headline volumes remained relatively stable, the market continued to show clear signs of maturation. Performance increasingly tilted toward value-driven strategies, with brands that combined disciplined portfolio management, strong offline execution and tighter inventory control outperforming volume-led approaches. This shift played out amid rising input costs, cautious consumer spending and elongating replacement cycles.

“In 4Q25, several brands quietly reset MOPs—particularly in LPDDR4-heavy, price-elastic segments—to pass through higher component costs,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia. Rising memory prices, combined with a depreciating rupee, forced vendors to recalibrate pricing across both new and carry-over models. Entering the post-festive quarter with elevated inventories, channels remained cautious on fresh stocking, while weakening affordability softened sell-out momentum from November onwards, reinforcing the quarter’s role as an inventory digestion phase.

Against this backdrop, Vivo and Oppo emerged as the only major brands to post double-digit year-on-year growth in the December quarter, underlining the strength of their retail-first execution. According to Chaurasia, Vivo has clearly emerged as the primary pull brand, commanding demand from both consumers and retailers. Its Q4 performance was driven by strong volumes from models such as the Y31 5G, Y19s 5G, T4X 5G and V60e, supported by deep offline penetration, one of the industry’s largest on-ground promoter networks and a decentralised, agent-led operating model that enables faster state-level execution. Oppo, meanwhile, sustained momentum through a balanced A- and K-series strategy, with the A-series driving scale and a rising share of K-series volumes shifting into mainline retail. Both brands follow a disciplined six-month refresh cadence and remain proactive in supporting retailers with ageing-stock clearance, reinforcing channel confidence even as the broader market corrected.

Most other leading brands faced pressure in the quarter amid cautious channels, pricing resets and weaker mass-market demand. Samsung’s volumes softened despite selective upgrade and cashback programmes around premium launches such as the Fold 7 and S25 FE. Xiaomi also saw shipments decline, even as it avoided aggressive portfolio-wide price hikes, with volumes anchored by entry models such as the Redmi 14C 5G and POCO C75. Apple’s performance remained broadly flat, supported by steady demand for the iPhone 17 base model, as consumers deferred purchases in anticipation of offers on older iPhone 15 and 16 models from January. realme faced volume pressure following price adjustments, though models such as the 15X, C71 and C73 provided some stability. Among challengers, OnePlus returned to growth after rebuilding ties with mainline retail, while Motorola and Nothing continued selective offline expansion focused on high-traffic stores.

Looking into 2026, Omdia expects higher prices and limited incremental hardware differentiation to continue delaying upgrades. While seasonality and potential policy support could help stabilise demand in the second half, the market is expected to be shaped increasingly by cost discipline and channel execution rather than headline innovation. Entry-level–heavy Chinese OEMs are likely to pivot toward value growth by targeting the Rs 25,000–Rs 60,000 ‘flagship killer’ segment, where margin headroom offers better protection against memory cost inflation, while the ₹60,000-plus segment will remain structurally led by Apple, Samsung and vivo.

“With memory inflation constraining hardware-led differentiation, brands will increasingly rely on channel-led levers such as service and ecosystem bundling, deeper financing, trade-ins and phased launches aligned with component availability,” Chaurasia said. “As consumer demand remains cautious, retail execution—including promoter strength, inventory support and localised sell-through programmes—will be critical to sustaining market stability through the year.”