Nifty Futures closed last week at around 17,440, gaining about 2.30 percent, and gyrated between 17,030 and 17,466. On the open interest (OI) front, a long build-up was witnessed in Nifty Futures over the week gone by as there was an increase in OI, with gains witnessed on the Nifty on a weekly closing basis.
On the other hand, Bank Nifty Futures lost about 2.97 percent, closing the week at around 40,840. Futures gyrated between 39,580 and 40,912 and ended the week with a gain.
Diving further into the Nifty upcoming weekly expiry, immediate resistance stands at the 17,500 level, where nearly 56.50 lakh shares are the open interest of CE options, followed by vital resistance at 17,700, where about 64.28 lakh shares of CE options are open interest. On the lower side, the immediate support level is at 17,300, where nearly 65.08 lakh shares are PE open interest options, followed by 17,000, where nearly 81.13 lakh shares are PE open interest options.
Looking at the Bank Nifty’s upcoming weekly expiry data, on the upside, the immediate and vital resistance is at 41,000, where nearly 14.42 lakh shares are the CE open interest, whereas, on the lower side, immediate and vital support is at 40,500, where about 22.35 lakh shares represent the PE open interest.
Volatility index
India VIX, the fear gauge, decreased to 12.94 on a week-to-week basis from 15.27. Further, any uptick in the India VIX could accentuate the downward move in the Nifty and vice versa.
Looking at the sentimental indicator, the Nifty OI PCR for the week has increased to 1.268 from 0.783. Over the week, the Bank Nifty OIPCR increased to 1.229 from 0.718 compared to last Friday. Overall data indicates PE writers are more aggressive than CE writers on the Nifty.
Sectoral contributions
Moving to the weekly contribution of sectors to the Nifty. Private Banks and Oil & Gas contributed positively, by +144.54 and +106.07 points, respectively.
Metals also contributed positively to the Nifty, by +19.25 points, while Auto and PSU Banks contributed positively to the index by about +11.65 and +18.23 points, respectively.
Power contributed +8.65 points, while Pharma and Cement contributed +14.37 and +10.74 points, respectively. Telecom and Infra were negative on the Nifty by -8.31 and -1.11 points, respectively.
The Nifty monthly rollover stands at 64.83 percent in March to April series expiry, while the Bank Nifty rollover stands at 85.84 percent in the March to April series expiry.
Berger Paints has the highest stockwise rollover of 96.54 percent, followed by Jubilant FoodWorks and IDFC First Bank, with rollovers at 95.61 percent and 94.07 percent respectively. Atul has the lowest rollover of 61.19 percent, followed by Samvardhana Motherson International and GMR Infra with rollovers at 61.91 percent and 62.89 percent, respectively.
Top gainers and losers
As for the top gainers and losers of the week in the F&O segment, Glenmark topped by gaining over 9.8 percent, followed by Dalmia Bharat with 8.2 percent, and Balrampur Chini Mills with 8.1 percent.
Indian Energy Exchange lost -10 percent, Vodafone Idea lost over -6.3 percent, and Gujarat Gas lost -4.6 percent over the week.
Given all this, in the upcoming week, the Nifty can be approached with a low-risk strategy, such as a modified Call Butterfly.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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