Clearly, the corporate facing banks, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are going through second round of virtual de-rating and add State Bank of India as well to that list.
The bears realised that perhaps 10,000 is likely to hold and ran for cover further fuelling the rally that was led by the big boy Reliance.
Today the big cues would be A) In the first half how does the market react to the fiscal stimulus, there has been Rs 2 per litre cut in petrol and diesel and B) Is there going to be a monetary stimulus as well thrown in at 2.40 pm or 3 pm when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces its monetary policy?
Yesterday the Indian market outperformed the emerging market by a handsome margin and now it would be a brave man to bet against this market making higher all-time highs.
This morning there is a good chance that the market which trapped a lot of long traders yesterday, does trap some short traders in today's trade especially if the SGX Nifty, which is indicating a bit of a gap up, if that builds on.
What the US market action overnight has done is that it has again brought back fear into the market and fear is the stronger emotion than greed. There is a possibility and high probability of market having a trend day today.
Today is weekly options expiry on the Bank Nifty, the highest open interest is at 24,700 Call, my sense is that the risk reward might just be in your favour to take some calls.
Geopolitical concerns, which lead to corrections normally are the best buying opportunities especially in a bull market and once again this has been a lesson in portfolio management.
It is a market which could do an on core of July series which is that the first day low was the sacrosanct low, that low never got tested and because a lot of people are feeling left out, this market could not give them an opportunity to participate and could make a move straight towards 10,500 on the Nifty before giving any kind of meaningful correction.
Don’t chase momentum. 10,000 or no 10,000, it is just a number. Good thing is it has now been taken out. This market has many legs of leadership now.
The market yesterday made a bit of a near-term double top. That theory would be out of the window if you take out all-time high. If not then the first hour low is not respected today, the market could have a bit of a trend day on the way down.
If 9,600 holds then midcap should outperform and that is where you should focus on today. Once again it is a buy on dips market now and you have to buy the dips.
Over the last few days, the markets clearly are giving you sectoral moves and the sectoral trends are clear by 10 am and in that case, it works for you if you were to take some good sector calls and work accordingly.
My sense is we could have a bit of a breakout today at index level. I say this because there were some shorts, which were created yesterday and the market ended at low point.
The market is now vulnerable to correction just because it may not fall, I am not saying that you short this market but if you ask me, I do not think the risk reward is in your favour if you were to buy now.
At index level, it is not a market which is going to give it too much juice unless of course it holds yesterday’s low and it starts to bounce.
Be extremely careful about the kind of trades that you enter right now. There is a temptation to look at the Nifty at all-time high. It is hiding a lot of things.
The problem is that the market my sense is would have anyway fallen today at least in the first half because in general yesterday was quite okay I mean first dip normally gets bought so that is what happened yesterday.
My sense is that today could be a day where you just want to buy intraday at the low point.
The sense I get is that the kind of basket buying that we saw on Monday as well Reliance, Larsen, HDFC of the world is indicating a smacking of that buying.
I think the market may want to take a step back now after having run-up so much.
My sense is today is again going to be a good day for intraday trades and again the market gives you a flat start or gives you a dip at any point that dip would be a buying opportunity but from intraday point of view now.
The point I have been making for last one month or two months is that on any day if the market shows you red tick if you buy, you will make money. Not on that day but at some point maybe next day, day after or at some point.