Any sign that the White House is prepared to end the war with Iran — now in its second week — could lift some of the pressure that has weighed on gold.
Markets remain fixated on the US–Iran conflict as Trump has vowed to strike “very hard,” while Iran’s president apologized for regional strikes and said Iran would refrain from attacking neighbouring countries “unless attacked first”. Crude oil and aluminum stand to gain most if the conflict deepens.
The sharp fall in domestic gold and silver ETFs today largely reflects the steep global correction in precious metals on Tuesday, when Indian equity markets were closed for a holiday. Silver-linked ETFs saw the steepest declines, while gold ETFs also traded lower.
The sharp fall in crude-sensitive counters comes as oil prices surged amid the widening conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Paint companies' stocks were among the worst affected, while Tyre makers and OMCs were also weak. The selling pressure extended to aviation stocks as well.
The surge in gold and silver ETFs tracked firm gains in underlying bullion prices. At around 09:30 am, when the Sensex was down 959 points and the Nifty slipped 1.15 percent to 24,889 -- gold and silver-linked ETFs were among the major gainers.
If US labour market conditions remain robust, expectations for a June rate cut may fade further. Conversely, a weaker jobs report could prompt markets to recalibrate rate expectations.
On the data front, US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, along with speeches from several FOMC officials, will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut.
Markets will also watch the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump tariffs scheduled for February 20. The week ahead will be holiday-shortened with potentially thinner liquidity.
Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts.
Further downside pressure on precious metals may emerge early in the week as higher CME margins come into effect on Monday, February 2.
The precious metal had climbed more than 20% just this month, with some technical indicators pointing to a near-term price correction.
This year, silver prices have risen Rs 1,65,500, or 69.2 per cent, from Rs 2,39,000 per kg recorded at the end of last year.
Sensex, Nifty turned into moderate gains from losses with the help of buying in metal, infra and PSU stocks, even as sentiment remained fragile amid persistent FII selling and uncertainty around global trade developments.
With Iran warning that any attack would be treated as “all-out war,” markets remain alert to the risk of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global crude flows.
Next week, commodity traders will watch President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals.
The report paints a picture of a turbulent 2026, where economic rivalry, security threats and long-term environmental dangers collide, leaving countries like India to balance growth with resilience in an increasingly fractured world.
Markets had opened in the green but quickly gave up gains, reinforcing the cautious tone that has prevailed since the Nifty slipped below the 26,000 mark in the previous session. Analysts see the early weakness as a test of the market’s ability to absorb recent selling pressure.
Wealth Guardian acquired 0.6 percent stake in TV Today Network.
Markets are likely to open sharply on edge Monday after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, charging them with drug trafficking following a major military operation on Saturday.
On MCX, gold futures for February delivery climbed Rs 948, or 0.7 per cent, to Rs 1,36,752 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 15,639 lots
Attention will be on the FOMC meeting minutes and weekly US jobless claims.
Rising for the fifth consecutive day on MCX, silver futures for March 2026 delivery zoomed by Rs 18,210, or 8.14 per cent, to touch a new record of Rs 2,42,000 per kilogram, before settling at Rs 2,39,787 per kg on Friday.
Stocks to Watch, 24 December: Stocks like Monte Carlo Fashions, Rail Vikas Nigam, Zydus Lifesciences, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, GPT Infraprojects, SJS Enterprises, Surana Telecom, Vikran Engineering, Ajanta Pharma, Coal India, Federal Bank, Bliss GVS Pharma, GAIL India, Belrise Industries, and Marc Technocrats will be in focus on December 24.
Belrise Industries shares almost doubled (at record high) from its issue price of Rs 90 since listing day May 28 this year.
With the upcoming holiday week likely to see thinner trading volumes, price action may be subdued.