A wider tariff imposition by Trump 2.0 would dent the corporate confidence much more than the base case, said Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya underscored that the Morgan Stanley's forecast could be at risk if Trump announces across-the-board tariffs.
In terms of the investment opportunity for investors, it is hard to find this kind of nominal GDP growth opportunity around the world, which India offers, Ahya says
U Federal Reserve holds rates at a 22-year high. But amid the global economic gloom will India emerge as a bright economic spot? And will China be able to re-ignite its growth? To gain insights on this join Moneycontrol’s Mahalakshmi in conversation with Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley for India and South-East Asia
Ahya said the global slowdown and weak exports were the reasons Morgan Stanley pegged India’s GDP growth at 6.2% for the next year. In FY 2025, it was expecting a 6.5 percent growth
Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley expects GDP growth to accelerate to 7.9 percent by December 2017.
Chetan Ahya, Co-Head Of Global Economics & Chief Asia Economist, Morgan Stanley expects fiscal deficit target to be kept around 3.3 percent. He also believes an increase in PSU bank recapitalisation to Rs 25,000 crore will lift sentiment.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley said that Brexit will be a long-drawn affair in Europe. "This could drag on," he said, adding that the impact could be on global trades.
In an exclusive and unplugged conversation with CNBC-TV18‘s Anuj Singhal, Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley reveals that he is a fitness freak and that his colleague Chetan Ahya and wife pushed him into a fitness regime.
The Indian economy is at a "definite inflexion point" and will build on its nascent recovery following a multi-year slump, says Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley.
The fiscal deficit target for FY17 is likely to be 3.7% and the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be around 11 percent, says Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley.
The best way for India to counter imported deflation is by ensuring that its rupee is 'fairly valued'. Ahya feels the rupee at the moment is 'over valued'.
Chetan Ahya, Co-Head-Global Economics & Chief Asia Economist Morgan Stanley, does not expect any change from RBI on Dec 1 but expects Fed to hike in mid-December.
The recent volatility in emerging markets as well as weak monsoon, which could spike food prices, may weigh on the central bank's decision, Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya says.
Chetan Ahya, MD, Morgan Stanley believes there is enough liquidity available in the banking system and therefore, there does not seem to be any justification for a CRR cut by the RBI.
According to global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, "The Budget does not have any measures that would disturb the current entrenched disinflation trend".
In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy & Anuj Singhal, Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley gave his take on Arun Jaitley's Union Budget and his outlook on the road ahead.
Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley says industrials is the best sector to buy on declining short rates. "Financials and consumer Discretionary are other ways to play this theme. We are overweight these three sectors," he adds.
Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist, managing director, Morgan Stanley says recovery in capex is still weak as of now, but is bottoming out, while adding that capex will be the key driver of growth recovery for India.
Shubhada Rao of YES Bank sees consumer price inflation averaging around 5.8-5.9 percent in 2015. Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley expects CPI to drop to 4.5 percent in November
Chetan Ahya, MD & Chief Economist Asia Pacific at Morgan Stanley believes India will have to address issues related to land acquisition and labour reforms to grow beyond 6.5 percent and hence it is not an immediate concern.
A large part of the slowdown in China has been caused because yuan has appreciated steadily at a CAGR of 3.5 percent since 2005 and that has now begun to dent Chinese exports.
The non-agri GDP, which is more important from the markets perspective, is likely to be very weak, feels Chetan Ahya.
In interview with CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, Menaka Doshi & Senthil Chengalvarayan, Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist and Managing Director of Morgan Stanley spoke about the fiscal number and what to expect from finance minister's Interim Budget speech.
The RBI's inflation control measures in an economy beset by sluggish growth has left the capex cycle on a standstill.
According to foreign brokerage Bank of America – Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) prolonging the recent liquidity tightening moves by the Reserve Bank may have an adverse impact on GDP growth which could slip to a low of 4.8 percent.