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There isn't a large overlap between equity outflows and debt inflows when bond yields rise, a deep dive by BoFa Securities suggests
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Volatility (US CBOE VIX) and term premia have been found to be correlated with portfolio flows into India. This makes the case for investors to track US growth, the US yield curve, and the US CBOE VIX
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In the 2022 institutional view, the IMF has continued with the 2012 stance saying countries should reap the benefits of capital flows, while managing the associated risks in a way that preserves macroeconomic and financial stability
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Capital flows have several benefits. They finance needed investments. They help insure against some kinds of risks. There are many benefits to countries from having capital flows in India and also benefits from receiving those capital flows, IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, told reporters here.
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In his 'Mundell-Fleming Lecture' at the International Monetary Fund headquarters Rajan argued that even if countries at either end of the flows follow reasonable policies, the nature of the expansion in liquidity in the up-cycle may, by increasing leverage and reducing pledgeability, set the stage for a costly downturn.
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Post demonetization and regulatory changes the industry is all set to change in a different orbit of growth.
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Stressing on need to continue with sound domestic policies and reforms, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said banks' asset quality stress has to be dealt first in order to revive the credit growth
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The Finance Ministry last week said the economy would grow in the vicinity of 7.5 percent this fiscal, down from the earlier projection of over 8 percent. In the first half of 2015-16, it expanded at 7.2 percent.
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"Indeed, one can possible say, with a rate cut in September, you could see a movement slightly down at around 7.50-7.60% (2025 yield) in the near-term," says Shilpa Kumar of ICICI Bank.
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"We are living in a globalised world and whatever happens in different countries does effect the risk appetite which in turn affects capital flows. Thus what we are seeing today is interim volatility in the markets. At this point in time we must remember that India is very well placed to weather this volatility," says ICICI Bank's Chanda Kochhar
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Kunj Bansal of Centrum Wealth Management on the other hand believes if the market continues to remain positive, not just long and medium-term investors, but even short-term investors can make money in Federal Bank.
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Despite there being a "slight disconnect" between valuations and fundamentals, the sheer flow of money towards Indian markets may lift them from current levels and take the Nifty closer to 9,000, believes Sandeep S Shenoy of Pioneer Investcorp.
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The markets guess is it is Glaxo bringing in the money - Rs 6400 crore for its open offer almost amounting to a billion dollars and therefore the same kind of rally in the rupee today like the one seen yesterday cannot be expected because this is strictly a one-off.
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Whether it is Lehman or quantitative easing or tapering for that matter, a fact of globalization is global inflows and outflows of funds can have huge destabilizing effects on all economies.
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During the Third Plenum earlier this month, policymakers pledged to speed up the opening of the country's capital account and further financial liberalization.
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Have global investors been missing the emerging market right next door?
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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet is to be held later on Tuesday. Lakshmikant Reddy, ICICI Prudential believes that whatever the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will do, that would not change his long-term fundamental opinion on the Indian equities.
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Fuelled by strong growth prospects and easy liquidity conditions, private sector investors are expected to pump in a whopping USD 1.11 trillion into emerging markets including India in 2013, says a report.
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The government needs to raise petrol prices urgently to address the twin problems of fiscal deficit and current account deficit, C Rangarajan, Chairman of Prime Minister‘s Economic Advisory Council told CNBC-TV18 in an exclusive interview today.
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Asserting that he has no worries as of now on capital flows, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said the Government would have to take steps if they go beyond a point.
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Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS says that the market is currently pricing in many negatives, and therefore, the downside is limited. He expects the Nifty to find support at 4700-4800 levels.
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Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D. Subbarao said on Friday it was important to bring down inflation to sustain growth and that it was too early to signal a change in monetary stance, suggesting the central bank may not be done with monetary tightening.
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India and the US today agreed to enhance cooperation to deal with global challenges like high commodity prices and volatility in capital flows, besides strengthening bilateral trade and investment.
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India and the US will discuss issues like capital flows to developing nations, and financial sector reforms at the three-day meeting in Washington beginning Monday.
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Jeremy Lawson, Deputy Director-Macro Analysis at IIF talks to CNBC-TV18's Menaka Doshi about the flows to the emerging markets and how he sees it panning out in the coming months.
