Last month, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in an event in Mumbai, raised concerns over the widening gap between credit and deposit growth, saying it will expose the system to structural liquidity issues.
This is because if the demand and growth exceed the potential, then inflation should be rising, not falling, the veteran economist told Moneycontrol
Goyal further said that high interest rates do raise the probability of delinquency for sectors.
.Stressing that the share of food in the household budget is high in India, Goyal said policy needs to focus on increasing agricultural productivity, since stable agricultural prices are important for non-inflationary growth.
"We are in a catch-up growth phase. Growth has to go up in order to create employment and jobs for young people, for the investment cycle to take off, and so on," Ashima Goyal, one of three external members on the six-member MPC, told Reuters.
As per RBI’s projection in April monetary policy, CPI inflation in the second quarter of the current financial year is projected lower than the medium term target of the central bank.
The yield on 10-year benchmark ended at 7.23 percent on April 19, which was highest since January 5, when it was at 7.235 percent, according to the Bloomberg data
According to Goyal, it should not be difficult for the RBI to manage higher foreign inflows into Indian government debt as an increase in the GDP and size of the markets should mean these funds can be absorbed without excess volatility.
According to Goyal, one of the three external members of RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, the 'big mistake' India made in the early years of the millennium was to spend more during years of high growth instead of building buffers
According to Goyal, the government should continue to focus on building physical and human capital in the 2024-25 interim budget as the level of private investment in these areas is "less than optimal".
According to Goyal, political parties should also be asked to declare how their election promises will be financed – which taxes will rise or what expenditure be cut
According to Goyal, headline retail inflation could fall towards 4 percent on a sustained basis at a pace faster than what forecasts suggest
The Indian economy has started doing well even in an unsupportive global environment, as the Modi-led government implemented various reforms in the last nine years, resulting in improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, according to RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal.
In an interview to Moneycontrol, Goyal said the Monetary Policy Committee had not raised real interest rates high enough for them to have "major adverse impacts" on growth
Goyal, one of the three external members of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, also said that oil marketing companies should start cutting fuel prices now that they have made up for their previous losses.
Goyal, one of the three external members of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, also says the market will keep getting surprised by interest rate decisions if it continues to ignore warnings
The MPC chose to keep the rates unchanged in the meeting but said it would act if the situation warranted so.
Goyal pointed out that US actions have spillover effects for the rest of the world
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised its benchmark repo rate by 250 basis points since May last year
According to Ashima Goyal, growth could be severely hit if continued rate hikes result in a real repo rate that is well above 1 percent
Rapid tightening of monetary policy across the world to fight inflation is leading to mounting concerns about growth. Central banks – including the RBI – could perform a quick U-turn and cut rates next year
While economists expect the Centre to broadly target a fiscal deficit of 6 percent or so for the next financial year, the International Monetary Fund recently called on the Indian government to be more "ambitious" in improving its finances.
On November 8, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation of old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes and one of the key objectives of the unprecedented decision was to curb black money flows and promote digital payments.
Goyal further said that the policy rate hikes have largely reversed pandemic-time cuts but the real rate remains low enough not to hurt the growth recovery
Once inflation begins to moderate by FY24, economists expect the MPC to prioritise growth and assess the effects of policy transmission.