'Wrong side of history': Indian experts see an attempt at arm-twisting by the US

It will be a tightrope walk for India, after abstaining from voting for all UN resolutions against Russia. (Photo by Marcelo Moreira from Pexels)

As a democracy in a region dominated by well entrenched military oligarchies, India is familiar with holding too many crosses. With a war raging in Europe and a world getting increasingly divided between two power blocs, the game of smoke and mirrors is getting foggier by the day.

The US, a strong Indian ally in the last few years, particularly since the nuclear deal of 2008, does not appear entirely pleased with what it believes is India’s pro-Russian tilt in the current European drama.

India taking up Russia's offer of discounted crude oil would not be a violation of American sanctions on Moscow, the White House said, while underlining that countries should also think about "where you want to stand" amidst Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden last week announced a ban on Russian oil and gas imports over the country's invasion of Ukraine, to target the main artery of Russia's economy.

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"Our message to any country continues to be to abide by the sanctions that we have put in place,’’ White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at her daily news conference on Tuesday.

No violation of sanctions

Asked about the possibilities that India could take up the Russian offer of discounted crude oil, Psaki said, "I don't believe this would be violating that (sanctions)." "But also think about where you want to stand when history books are written at this moment in time. Support for the Russian leadership is support for an invasion that obviously is having a devastating impact," she added.

Indian experts smell an attempt at classical American arm twisting. ``When has India ever been on the right side of history, as far as America is concerned,” queries former RAW chief Vikram Sood.

``India is an independent country and will make its own choices. The US had promised not to expand NATO eastwards, despite several warnings by Putin not to cross the Red Line. Yet it went ahead. Now it is at the receiving end. It has lost out heavily in Afghanistan. So lecturing India is not good enough,” Sood told Moneycontrol.

That the US is willing to pressurize India on Russian oil is beyond any reasonable doubt. Indian American Congressman Dr Ami Bera has expressed disappointment over reports that India is contemplating buying Russian oil at a steeply discounted rate.

"If reports are accurate and India makes this decision to buy Russian oil at a discounted price, New Delhi would be choosing to side with Vladimir Putin at a pivotal moment in history when countries across the world are united in support of the Ukrainian people and against Russia's deadly invasion," the Democratic Party lawmaker said.

Read also: Encourage Indian leaders to work closely with US against Putin's invasion of Ukraine: White House

"As the world's largest democracy and as a leader of the Quad, India has a responsibility to ensure its actions do not directly or indirectly support Putin and his invasion," Bera said in a statement.

National interest paramount

Another former RAW chief, AS Dulat, told Moneycontrol: ``American has to do what is best in its national interest. India has to do what suits it the best. Foreign policy is about following national interest. Despite our nuclear deal with the US, we are not on anyone’s side. We are independent.”

Indian diplomats like former Ambassador Pavan Verma, say the US reaction is on predictable lines. ``What do you expect the US to say? If India is getting cheap Russian oil, it is buying it. It is as simple as that,’’ Verma told Moneycontrol.

He adds for good effect: ``For all you know, the US and Russia could arrive at a modus vivendi, so where does India fit into it? I would not attach much significance to it.’’

No blind support

The US-led West has imposed a series of financial sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine. New Delhi has not supported the Russian military operation of Ukraine and has asked all stakeholders to resolve differences through dialogue.

India has, however, abstained in all United Nations resolutions against Russia.

Indian diplomats say officials of the Biden administration have revealed an understanding of New Delhi’s position and have told American lawmakers that India has major dependence on Russian military supplies for its national security requirements amidst the challenges posed by China on its borders.

Former diplomat Gautam Bambawale, who has served as the Indian Ambassador to China from 2017 to 2018 as well as High Commissioner to Pakistan, believes the Russian-Ukraine standoff is a one-off case.

He explains: ``Geopolitics has changed. The rise of China has brought India closer to the great democracies of the world. China’s rise has pushed democracies together. Hence, some of them, notably the US, are unable to comprehend why India has abstained thrice in the UN on the Ukraine-Russia issue; in other words, India seems to be on the side of Russia instead of a democratic Ukraine.”

India’s image intact

But that is not the case. This is one specific development, where India has by no means condoned Russian action in Ukraine. In the days and weeks ahead, several delegations from the UK, US and others are scheduled to visit India. The Japanese prime minister is scheduled to meet the Indian prime minister. So, the democratic world fully appreciates India’s position, Bambawale told Moneycontrol.

Wouldn’t it be accurate to say that India has traditionally been close to the world’s great democracies? In the 1962 Sino-Indian border war, wasn’t it New Delhi that turned to the US?

According to the veteran diplomat, though it is true that the then Indian prime minister did turn to the US for help, the fact is that Washington never blamed Beijing for the border aggression. Number two, it did provide arms and ammunition to India but that came after the war.

In Bambawale's estimate, Russia/Soviet Union has been India’s long-term friend. ``During the 13-day 1971 war, it was Moscow which used its veto during the last five days, without which it would have been difficult for India to complete its victory the way it did, had the UN intervened," he points out.

He also reminds that nearly 60-65 percent of Indian defence equipment comes from Russia. ``So, our closeness to Russia must be appreciated,” he points out.

Clearly, it is a tightrope, which India is adept at walking