The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections will enter the ‘Yadav belt’, considered a Samajwadi Party (SP) stronghold, in the third phase of voting this Sunday.
As many as 59 Assembly constituencies spread across 16 districts – from Bundelkhand to the Avadh region – will go to polls on February 20. The most keenly watched contest would, however, be Karhal in Mainpuri, where SP chief and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav is contesting his maiden Assembly election.
The third phase covers five districts from western Uttar Pradesh, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Kasganj, Hathras, six districts of Avadh region, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Auraiya, Kannauj, Etawah, Farrukhabad and five districts from Bundelkhand region, Jhansi, Jalaun, Lalitpur, Hamirpur and Mahoba.
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Eight districts – Mainpuri, Etawah, Firozabad, Kasganj, Etah, Farrukhabad, Kannauj and Auraiya – were strongholds of Mulayam Singh Yadav's family, at least until 2017 elections, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a clinching victory by bagging 312 of the 403 Assembly seats in the state. These seats have a considerable population of Yadavs and Samajwadi Party has over the years held its grip on the vote bank bagging major chunk of the community support.
But things changed in 2017. The SP could get just 47 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Out of the 29 seats in the Yadav belt, the BJP won 23, while the SP could win only six. In 2012, the SP had won 25 seats, while the BJP had won just one in this region.
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This time, however, Akhilesh Yadav has entered the fray to act as a force multiplier in the third phase. His uncle Shivpal Yadav is also contesting from Jaswantnagar in Etawah on February 20.
With his native village Saifai just 4 kilometres away, Karhal in Mainpuri is the home turf for Akhilesh. In 2017, Karhal was among very few seats retained by the SP. Sobaran Singh Yadav ruled the seat since 2007.
Akhilesh is facing a BJP challenge here. The party has fielded Union minister of state for law and order and its Agra MP SP Singh Baghel, making the battle interesting. Baghel is a former SP loyal, who rose from being Mulayam Singh Yadav’s security guard to one of his trusted aides.
Top BJP leaders like Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have campaigned in the Yadav bastion from where Mulayam and many other members of the Yadav family have been parliamentarians.
Akhilesh campaigned in the region on February 17 and addressed meetings at several places in the Karhal Assembly constituency, Mainpuri, Firozabad, Mainpuri and Etawah.
Jaswant Nagar, from where Shivpal Singh Yadav is contesting, is also a Yadav family forte. The seat elected Mulayam from 1985 to 1993 for four consecutive terms and his younger brother Shivpal Yadav from 1996 to 2017 for five terms in a row.
Of the overall 59 seats going to polls in the third phase, the SP had won 37 in the 2012 Assembly polls. In 2017, the BJP won 49 of these, while the SP had to settle with only nine. The Congress got one and the Bahujan Samaj Party drew a blank.
The BJP had secured a clean sweep in Bundelkhand by winning all 19 seats. In Bundelkhand, 13 seats of Jhansi, Jalaun, Lalitpur, Hamirpur and Mahoba districts will vote in the third phase on February 20, while six seats of Chatrakoot and Banda districts will go to polls in the fourth phase on February 23.
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