For Kerala CPM, this may be a good time to begin succession planning

The Kerala CPM is in a tight spot for not having identified a successor to CM Pinarayi Vijayan yet. (File image)

The Kerala Lokayukta case pertaining to the misuse of the Chief Minister’s Distress Relief Fund (CMDRF), with Pinarayi Vijayan in the dock, is like a Damocles’ sword hanging over the chief minister’s neck.

For, Vijayan’s indictment in the case, where misappropriation could be made out prima facie, would also mean immediate disqualification for the chief minister under section 14 of the Lokayukta Act. And with the CPM in Kerala not having identified a successor to Vijayan as yet, it puts the party in a tight spot.

Though the case was referred to a larger bench on March 31,  it did bring to focus the perils of the CPM not having identified a successor two years into Vijayan’s second term.

For the longest time, the Late Kodiyeri Balakrishnan was assumed to be the successor to Pinarayi Vijayan. Ever since Balakrishnan’s untimely demise, however, there is a churning within the party, oblivious to the public, on the issue of Vijayan’s successor.

Close, Yet Far

When MV Govindan succeeded Balakrishnan as the state secretary, it was out of turn, and hence he is not seen as the natural successor to Vijayan. The ill-timed “Janakeeya Prathirodha Yatra” (People’s Resistance March) undertaken by Govindan was an attempt to position himself as Vijayan’s successor but the “Yatra” itself turned out to be a disaster, and his limitations were exposed in the process.

Earlier it was KK Shailaja, the former health minister, who was touted to be the successor to Vijayan, albeit in the media discourse. A wary Vijayan did not accommodate Shailaja in his Cabinet in the second term despite the party’s keenness to give her an exemption. Shailaja is now on the party’s shortlist for the Kannur Lok Sabha seat in 2024, which could banish her from the scene for leadership stakes.

Vijayan Again?

Despite the Lokayukta case and the SNC Lavalin case dogging him, Vijayan himself is not averse to bidding for a third term in 2026 – health willing. The Kerala CPM owes much of its organisational muscle and financial robustness to Vijayan’s foresight, and hence it is natural that he would have a decisive say in identifying his successor – even if his bid gets thwarted.

Rumours persist that Vijayan is keen on installing his son-in-law PA Mohammed Riyas as the next chief minister. If it comes to that, in all likelihood, Vijayan’s detractors and the more deserving candidates could gang up against it. For the time being, Riyas has undoubtedly emerged as a virtual power centre in the party.

The Son-In-Law

As of today Riyas wields considerable influence within the party and the government. This is apparent whenever he is in the company of senior ministers such as V Sivankutty, and the way he is accorded deferential treatment. Riyas also holds the twin portfolios of Public Works Department (PWD) and Tourism in the cabinet, which casts him under regular media spotlight.

However, for all the clout he wields as the son-in-law today, it will not be easy for him to emerge as a straightforward choice to succeed Vijayan. For now, Riyas’ best chance lies in his candidature being used as a bargaining chip with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) to join the Left Front ranks before 2026, in what would be the easiest route for the Left to retain power in Kerala.

Fading Veterans

When the CPM apparatchiks went into a huddle at the AKG Centre on March 31, the day of the Lokayukta ruling, senior minister and CPM’s Dalit face K Radhakrishnan’s name was reportedly proposed as a stopgap. For all his seniority, the harmless Radhakrishnan is hemmed in by the party through the appointment of the high-profile A Sampath as his secretary and, his chief ministership would have only been a symbolic exercise for the CPM.

The CPM was fairly confident about the verdict, despite its calculations going awry in the case of former minister KT Jaleel in 2021. Veterans EP Jayarajan, AK Balan and TM Thomas Isaac were all ruled out, and Politburo member MA Baby is seen to be angling for the general secretary’s chair to succeed Sitaram Yechury.

The Dark Horse

If Vijayan moots a generational overhaul to identify his successor, with the primary aim to push Riyas into leadership, one leader who could emerge as the dark horse is P Rajeeve. Rajeeve is in the Vijayan mould when it comes to raising funds and building bridges with influencers, perhaps more sophisticated and devoid of the Kannur trappings. Rajeeve’s lack of mass base may be a disadvantage but he could compensate for that with his intellectual pretensions.

For now, Vijayan wouldn’t be keen to have a designated No:2 in the party despite facing some anxious moments last week. That would be his best bet to make a bid for the third term, failing which he can always push Riyas as the “youthful minority face” who could also be acceptable to prospective allies.

Anand Kochukudy is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.