US Foreign Policy | Under Biden, expect change in style, not in substance

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It is a truth universally acknowledged that United States President-Elect Joe Biden is an establishment man. So, the first major difference between Donald Trump’s foreign policy and Biden’s foreign policy would be in the style. Unlike Trump, whose foreign policy was personality driven, Biden’s foreign policy would be more measured, and more process-driven. This means the rest of the world is unlikely to wake up to outrageous tweets from the US President. It also means the rest of the world would find it easier to deal with Washington as foreign policy would become much more predictable.

In a Foreign Affairs article, Biden had put democracy and human rights at the heart of his foreign policy, promising to organise a global Summit for Democracy bringing together the world’s democracies to strengthen democratic institutions and forge a common agenda. This means that human rights violations in other parts of the world may invite sanctions.

Biden has promised to modernise the US’ immigration system, ending the practice of separating children from their families and upholding the US’ position as a beacon of freedom and a land of immigrants. Biden will reverse Trump’s travel ban on people from mostly Muslim countries. However, it remains to be seen how far he can follow through on his promise given that the Obama-Biden administration deported more people than Trump, earning Obama the moniker ‘deporter in chief’.

Trump had caused much damage to the US credibility by withdrawing the US out of the WHO, UNESCO, the Paris climate change agreement, and the JCPOA with Iran, and threatening to pull the US out of the WTO. This is where a Biden administration would differ substantially. Biden has already promised to restart negotiations with Iran, and Iran could look forward to a lessening of sanctions on it, provided it agrees to control its nuclear weapons programme. This opens up an opportunity for India to restart exports of petroleum products to Iran.

Biden has also promised to re-join the Paris climate change agreement though he could insist that other countries such as China and India reduce emissions more. His proposed border carbon adjustment mechanism, however, could affect allies such as Japan and Australia.

In West Asia, Biden has already signalled his commitment to Israel, and the US embassy will not shift from Jerusalem. However, Biden is unlikely to turn a blind eye, like Trump, to Israel’s illegal settlements. Biden has said the US will stop supporting the Saudi Arabian war in Yemen. He will continue the policy of pulling out troops from Afghanistan.

Trump’s relentless attacks on China for everything from lopsided trade to the COVID-19 pandemic, leaves little room for manoeuvrability for Biden. Biden has said that he will cooperate with China on common threats such as climate change and health security. But China is also likely to be put on the mat for human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

With the establishment in Washington convinced that Beijing is a strategic competitor, ties between the two are unlikely to improve substantially. The US will continue its policy of trying to manage China’s rise with the help of allies in the Indo-Pacific. This means that ties with India will remain strong. India, should, however expect to be preached on human rights issues, though not enough to rock the boat.

Russia was one of the few countries which wanted Trump to be re-elected. Though Trump could not do much to revive relations with Russia, a Biden administration would be more likely to confront Russia and support uprisings in its near abroad. Besides, a Biden administration will give priority to deepening ties with its European allies and strengthening NATO, neither of which will comfort Moscow. Balancing between Moscow and Washington amidst renewed tensions between them will not be an easy task for New Delhi, which has strong ties with both.

Biden’s foreign policy expertise and interest is not doubt, given his many years of experience and his earlier avatar as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. But as US President, his first priority will be domestic renewal. So, much will depend on who he chooses as Secretary of State.

Given his centrist positioning, he is unlikely to choose anyone from the Left of his party. Whoever he chooses, one should not forget that the grand strategy of the US is to maintain its preponderance in the world and every US administration is bound to follow this. So, while the style of US foreign policy may change under Biden, the substance will not.