Politics | The Af-Pak shadow on Centre’s Kashmir gambit

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Rajeev Sharma 

The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s move to revoke Article 370 from Jammu & Kashmir and the move to bifurcate the state into two union territories will have two immediate repercussions: One, on the possible responses from Pakistan in view of the Afghanistan situation and, two, on the security and intelligence front.

External factors, such as developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan are likely to have weighed in in the Centre’s move to push for the moves in Kashmir.

The Donald Trump administration is keen on winding down its military engagement in Afghanistan and has been holding direct talks with the Taliban to expedite the pullout of American troops from Afghanistan. To achieve this objective the United States has warmed up to Pakistan and even loosened its purse strings as Washington needs Islamabad to be on its side to achieve this objective.

This brings Pakistan back in the business. The encouraged Pakistani military establishment has upped its ante in J&K and reports suggest that it is activating its non-state actors to stage a wave of terror attacks in J&K. This is evidenced by the recovery of several bombs and weapons bearing Pakistani markings, which resulted in the cancellation of the Amaranth Yatra weeks ahead of its scheduled closure.

An emboldened Pakistan with blessings from the Trump administration is a sure recipe for disaster for India, particularly in J&K, and this could be a reason for the hurry on part of the Modi government to push through its Kashmir moves.

Pakistan may do with Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir what India has done to J&K. Pakistan currently has four provinces — Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhunkhwa (KP) — and three territories: Islamabad Capital Territory, Gilgit-Baltistan and ‘Azad Kashmir’. After the Indian move, Pakistan may announce the latter two territories named above as independent provinces. This will further complicate the Kashmir issue. The Af-Pak factor explained above implies that terrorism would have a significant uptick in J&K in the coming weeks and months.

The immediate impact of J&K becoming a Union Territory with a legislature like Delhi or Puducherry (unlike the Union Territory of Ladakh without a legislature, like Chandigarh) will be that the security and intelligence networks should improve, now that these will be directly under the Centre. The Centre will have complete control of not only on all the appointments of police and intelligence officers but will also be in a position to decide much faster on available intelligence as the erstwhile state government’s interference won’t be there and the multi polarity of authorities responsible for collection, dissemination and analysis of intelligence won’t be there, with the central government being the sole authority. This should make counter-terrorism far more effective than it has ever been.

One must not forget the fact the then J&K state government had first got hold of intelligence about the Pulwama terror attack on February 14 four days before the attack. The state government shared the intelligence with central agencies, such as the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) — now, imagine the preparedness of the government’s counter-terror machinery if its own agencies are directly dealing with this work of dealing with terrorism.

However, there is a flip side too. Now the Centre won’t have any excuses or alibis if another ticket terror attack were to happen in J&K. In such a situation the Centre won’t be able to hide behind the fig leaf of multi-layered, multi-player security and intelligence architecture because now everything is in its hands.

One hopes that terror attacks such as the ones that took place in Uri or Pathankot or Pulwama do not take place — more so because now the security apparatus will be directly under the Centre’s watch.

When seen from this angle, is the Centre’s Kashmir move a double-edged sword?

Rajeev Sharma is a senior journalist and political analyst. Twitter: @kishkindha. Views are personal.