Kazakhstan unrest weakens its balancing policy

After ‘shoot to kill without warning’ orders by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and entry of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) troops in the country, the situation in Kazakhstan seems to be stabilising.

In the worst street protests since its independence, more than 160 people were killed over the last week in Kazakhstan. There was large scale destruction of property, including hundreds of cars and more than 100 banks and businesses. Many government buildings, including the President's residence in Almaty, were damaged. Almaty airport was also seized by protestors. Although the immediate cause of protests was the hike in LPG prices, wider discontent against the government as well as struggle within the ruling elites cannot be ruled out altogether.

Tokayev’s immediate reaction  was acceptance of the Prime Ministers’ resignation, termination of the powers of the current government, and declaration of emergency. When protests still continued, Tokayev called protesters “bandits and terrorists”. He asserted that they were “not aware of the underground preparation of terrorist attacks by sleeper cells and militants. Almost 20 thousand bandits attacked Almaty”. He also ruled out any negotiation with “criminals and murderers”.

About 8,000 people have now been arrested. Tokayev now says that the main goal was “to undermine the constitutional order and to seize power. We are talking about an attempted coup d'etat”. Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that the Kazakhstan was targeted by international terrorism. The Russian ambassador to the United States said that jihadis are involved in the Kazakh unrest.

Kazakhstan is a huge landlocked country in India’s neighbourhood, strategically located between China and Russia. Though its population is only 19 million, it is the ninth largest country in the world by landmass, slightly smaller than India. It has major deposits of oil, gas and minerals. The country has proven oil reserves of about 30 billion barrels and produces about 2 million barrels a day. In 2019 it also produced 43% of the world's uranium. Its hydrocarbon sector has attracted large amounts of FDI in the last 25 years.

Kazakhstan is a predominantly Muslim country. Still, about one-fourth of the population is Orthodox Christians. Although a large number of Russians emigrated to Russia after independence, they still constitute about 20 percent of the population.

Despite diverse geopolitical objectives, almost all major players including Russia, the US, the European Union, China, and India want political stability in Kazakhstan. After the Afghanistan debacle, any further instability in the region can have devastating effects in Eurasia. Moreover, under its ‘multi vector’ foreign policy, Kazakhstan has strengthened its ties with all major players.

The country is part of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union-including customs union. It has developed strong trade and energy ties with China, and is an important partner of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Its strategic partnership with the US is based on security and non-proliferation issues as well as huge investments by US companies in the oil and gas sector.

Kazakhstan is also an important country in India’s evolving  Central Asian strategy. With $2.5 billion annual trade in 2019-20, it has been the largest trade partner in the region. New Delhi signed a strategic partnership with Nur-Sultan (Astana) in 2009. ONGC has been active in the country, and most of India’s uranium comes from Kazakhstan.

All post-independent Central Asian leaders were part of the former communist elite. Unlike Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan was trying to follow a different model of presidential succession. Its first President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled the country since 1991, unexpectedly resigned in 2019, and made Tokayev acting President, who won elections later.

Tokayev tried to introduce political reforms through his concept of ‘Listening State’. Nazarbayev still remained chairman of the influential security council, and held the formal title ‘Leader of the Nation’. His family controlled a significant part of the economy. Therefore, removal of the leader from his post, and the arrest of Nazarbayev’s close ally, ex-security chief Karim Masimov for treason, is much more important than sacking of the government.

In the unrest Russia has found a good opportunity to increase its influence in a strategic country with very limited military engagement. When tensions with the West are high over Ukraine, Russia has shown relevance of the CSTO to post-Soviet leaders. Putin asserts that the CSTO “has proven its potential, its ability to act swiftly, decisively and efficiently”.

China’s President Xi Jinping also praised Kazakhstan for a decisive action, and opposed external forces which he says were deliberately creating unrest in the country, and staging a ‘colour revolution’.

Some of these developments are worrying for the West. The EU says that “we stand ready to provide assistance for a peaceful resolution of the crisis”. However, “outside military support should respect the sovereignty and independence of Kazakhstan as well as the fundamental rights of all citizens”. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken argued that “we are encouraging everyone to find a peaceful resolution”. But he was clear that “one lesson in recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it’s sometimes very difficult to get them to leave”.

India has reacted mainly in the context of safety of Indian nationals in the country. After the crackdown, Kazakhstan is likely to be more authoritarian, Tokayev-centric, and much more Russia-oriented than before. This may disturb the West, and benefit China further.

Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the School of International Studies & Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.