Why India must re-work its Central Asia strategy

(Image: AFP)

The third meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue was held under the shadows of the pandemic as well as the uncertain situation in Afghanistan. The Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan underlined their “civilizational, cultural, trade and people-to-people linkages” with India and agreed to “continue close consultations on the situation in Afghanistan.”

Unlike the first two dialogues, no special invitation was extended to Afghanistan. The gathering also coincided with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)’s Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in Islamabad which discussed the humanitarian and economic situation in Afghanistan. While the Central Asian Foreign Ministers were in Delhi, Taliban Foreign Minister Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi attended the Islamabad meeting. With the possible exception of Tajikistan, all other Central Asians have started engaging with the Taliban.

The changing dynamics in Afghanistan is pushing India to be pro-active in the Eurasian region and re-work its Central Asia strategy. There are reports that the presidents of all five Central Asian Republics are likely to be invited together by India as Republic Day guests. In 2018, India had invited all 10 ASEAN leaders for the event. Before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Delhi, India had held a meeting with the national security advisors from Central Asian countries. The meeting discussed the evolving Afghanistan situation in which officials from Russia and Iran also participated.

Central Asia has long been part of the Indian imagination because of old civilisational linkages and cultural connections. In the last three decades, India had an ambition to raise its profile and connect with its Central Asian neighbourhood. This has been reflected through its ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ and ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy.

Although India established close political ties with all countries in the region, commercial ties remain limited. An unstable Afghanistan and difficult India-Pakistan relations created problems for direct connectivity. Currently, bilateral trade between India and Central Asia is in the range of about $3 billion, out of which $2.5 billion is only with Kazakhstan.

At the dialogue, the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar asserted that to take India-Central Asia ties to the next level, we must “focus around 4 Cs: Commerce, Capacity enhancement, Connectivity and Contacts”.

Earlier, New Delhi tried to resolve connectivity issues through working with Russia and Iran via the International North-South Trade Corridor (INSTC) and its tributaries. Engagements in Afghan infrastructure were also part of this strategy.

The US New Silk Road Strategy of connecting Central Asia with South Asia via Afghanistan also coincided with Indian designs. Unlike the United States seeking to spread democracy and market economics, India, however, primarily focused on ensuring political stability in the region. With the U.S. debacle in Afghanistan, these narratives are no longer valid. Some of the connectivity linkages are now being discussed in the context of the Ashgabat Agreement and inclusion of Chabahar Port within the framework of INSTC. Turkmenistan is still keen to push the TAPI gas pipeline. Taliban has also talked favourably about the TAPI project.

After signing strategic partnerships with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, India announced its own twelve point ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy in 2012. The idea was to look at the region collectively in a more proactive manner and strengthen India’s political, security, economic and cultural connections throughout the region.

In July 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited all five Central Asian States. In 2017, India also became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). In 2019, New Delhi initiated the ‘India-Central Asia Dialogue’ at the Foreign Ministers level including Afghanistan. During the same year, bilateral relations with Kyrgyzstan were also elevated to a ‘strategic partnership’.

Development cooperation and capacity building have been an important part of Indian engagement in the region. This has also been reflected during the pandemic. During the earlier two dialogues, India-Central Asia Development Group and India-Central Asia Business Council were established. A separate $1billion line of credit for development projects in infrastructure, IT, energy, and agriculture was launched in 2020.

Indian strategy toward the region in the past has been subservient to its Afghanistan, China and Pakistan policies. In addition, Russian and U.S. designs have further influenced Indian strategy towards Central Asia. Till the time there is some stability in Afghanistan, India will have to work with Central Asians to safeguard the region from negative repercussions of Taliban takeover in terms of radicalisation, increased terrorist activity and drug trafficking. However, pro-active initiatives indicate that it is also re-working an independent Central Asia policy.

Gulshan Sachdeva is Chairperson, Centre for European Studies & Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.