BJP’s southern gameplan defies logic as it loses a long-time ally in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu stands out as a key battleground for the BJP in the upcoming general elections. (Representational image)

The BJP’s southern strategy seems lacking in direction and cohesion in the prelude to the Lok Sabha polls. If it co-opted the Janata Dal (Secular) as an ally in Karnataka, ostensibly to shore up its flanks after the rout in the assembly elections and amid dissensions on both sides, it lost a long-time teammate in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK.

A statement from the AIADMK blamed the Tamil Nadu BJP’s “derogatory” comments on the Dravida political movement’s ideological founder, CN Annadurai, as well as the late chief minister and party icon Jayalalithaa, as the principal reason for the break-up.

Annamalai Vs AIADMK

K Annamalai, the feisty state BJP president, had accused Annadurai of running down Hinduism at an event in the Madurai Meenakshi Amman temple back in 1956, for which, Annamalai added, he was challenged by Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar, who went on to become a role model for the powerful backward caste Thevars, a community which the BJP is trying hard to court. Following Thevar’s rebuttal, the BJP president alleged that Annadurai went into hiding. The AIADMK disclaimed his charges.

For the AIADMK, Annamalai’s jibes were akin to its leaders assailing the BJP’s ideologue Deen Dayal Upadhayay or Atal Bihari Vajpayee, LK Advani and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, something the party never did.

Annamalai had earlier trashed Jayalalithaa for running a corrupt government. Provoked by his attacks, former AIADMK ministers SP Velumani, P Thangamani, C Ve Shanmugam and NR Viswananathan recently met the BJP president JP Nadda and central minister Piyush Goyal, who is the Tamil Nadu minder, and complained about Annamalai.

Cold War Between Allies

They returned with no assurances, following which the AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Karuppa Palaniswami (EPS) convened a meeting of his colleagues and the district secretaries and decided to call off the alliance. The AIADMK’s ground level feedback was that there was no coordination between the former allies at the grassroots, despite the alliance going back to 1998 with occasional disruptions.

However, the push did not come from one side. The AIADMK might not have sounded publicly combative but behind the scenes, it poached the BJP’s state functionaries. The BJP had charged it with violating the “coalition dharma”.

In the phase after Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, the AIADMK slumped into inaction as a major factional feud erupted between Palaniswami (EPS) and O Panneerselvam (OPS), which was eventually settled in EPS’s favour. Its relationship with the BJP was not mutually beneficial.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK-helmed Secular Progressive Alliance (which included the Congress and the Left parties) made a clean sweep, winning 38 of the 39 seats. The AIADMK was the only NDA constituent to pick up one seat. The BJP drew a blank.

Jayalalithaa, And After 

The pattern repeated in the 2021 assembly elections. The DMK alliance won 159 of the 234 seats while the AIADMK managed to get just 66 seats and the BJP, four.

As long as Jayalalithaa was around, the AIADMK’s equation with the BJP was based on a degree of parity which had to do with her leadership, charisma and cadre fealty. Once she was gone, the equation changed and the BJP did not deal on the same terms with EPS, a lacklustre leader.

The BJP was back to playing the big brother, a role it assumed with the other NDA constituents but never dared to with Jayalalithaa. The leadership saw no pain and gain in calling off the alliance with the AIADMK.

The BJP, justifiably, pointed out that with its four MLAs, it was a more effective opposition in the assembly than the AIADMK which failed to corner the DMK on the issues of the day.

BJP Filling An Oppositional Vacuum?

Seldom in the recent past has the BJP’s central command afforded as much latitude to a regional leader as Annamalai, a former IPS officer, who is untried and untested. He is ostensibly resting on the laurels he purportedly gained when he went on a “padyatra”.

The crowds that the walkathon drew led him to claim that the BJP had “arrived” in Tamil Nadu and was about to make rapid strides on its own. “As long as I am alive, no one can view BJP as a junior partner in the alliance...I am here to establish BJP as Tamil Nadu’s governing party,” he declared.

The BJP’s central leadership indicated that it was serious on enlarging its footprint in the state. In December 2022, PM Modi inaugurated the Kashi Tamil Sangamam in Varanasi to acquaint Uttar Pradesh with “Dravidian” culture, although to most Tamil-speaking people, Varanasi is associated more with Shaivism than Dravidian art and literature.

The “sengol” or sceptre, installed in the new Parliament, was handed to Modi by the head priest of the Madurai mutt. It was used in the Chola kingdom to signify the transfer of power in the monarchy and symbolise just and fair governance. It is hard to assess whether such tokens will carry hard political messages in Tamil Nadu, which is still dominated by the Dravidian forces and draws a sharp line between religion and electoral politics.

However, with the AIADMK out, is the BJP keeping an option open with the DMK in a post-poll scenario in 2024? After all, the DMK was once part of the NDA under PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Radhika Ramaseshan is a senior journalist and columnist. She was the political editor of The Telegraph. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.