The Karnataka assembly poll defeat is forcing BJP, JD(S) into a risky alliance

The nervousness in the opposition camp is palpable as the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government is sitting pretty, having rolled out its major election promises

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (Secular) have confirmed that they will face the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together in Karnataka, but the big question is if this will work to their advantage or detriment, as such alliances have swung both ways in the past.

The finer details are still being worked out and if the alliance materialises, this will not be the first time that both the outfits will jointly fight elections, as the relationship between the two goes back to the early 1980s when Ramakrishna Hegde of the Janata parivar was the Chief Minister. Over the years, the parivar split into many splinter groups, while the JD(S) founded by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda was the only one to survive in the State, weathering many a storm.

JD(S): Opportunism And Compulsion

While Deve Gowda loses no opportunity to flaunt his “secular credentials”, this partnership comes as no surprise as JD(S) is bereft of any ideological moorings, having perfected the art of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.

In 2004, when no party could muster a majority of its own, JD(S) first propped up a Congress government led by N Dharam Singh under an arrangement where both parties would rule the State for two-and-a-half-years each.  However, Deve Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy grew impatient mid-way, ditched the Congress and crowned himself as CM in alliance with BJP, again under a 50-50 formula.

At the end of his term, he refused to hand over the baton to BJP and when after much persuasion Yediyurappa was sworn in as the CM, the JD(S) ensured that his government fell within seven days, leading to a spell of President’s rule. In 2018, Kumaraswamy became the Chief Minister again, this time, with Congress support.

Today, as both Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy have openly admitted, the JD(S) is facing an existential crisis, particularly after its poor showing in the 2023 assembly elections where it won only 19 out of the 224 seats. With its voter base eroded and former ally, the ruling Congress, refusing to touch it with a barge pole, JD(S) stares at a bleak future.

Demoralised BJP Needs A Crutch

But why would BJP which won 25+1 out of the 28 seats during the 2019 Lok Sabha seats (In Mandya, it supported independent candidate Sumalatha Ambarish) be desperate to stitch an alliance with JD(S)?

Well, the BJP too finds itself in total disarray after the humiliating defeat it suffered in the recent assembly elections. The party is in such poor shape that it has not been able to appoint the Leader of the Opposition in both houses of the legislature, even three months after the polls. Some party MLAs are even said to be contemplating switching sides to the Congress.

The nervousness in the opposition camp is palpable as the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government is sitting pretty, having rolled out its major election promises including free bus travel for women, free power up to 200 units and Rs 2,000 monthly allowance for home makers, all of which have been received well by the public.

But JD(S) A Liability For Allies

The BJP may also be hoping to divide the “secular” votes by roping in JD(S), but this gamble may or may not pay off. During the previous Lok Sabha elections, an alliance with JD(S) proved to be a liability for the Congress which managed to win just one seat.

JD(S) could not even ensure the victory of Deve Gowda in Tumkur or Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil in the party’s stronghold of Mandya. However, when the Congress went it alone during this year’s assembly polls, it won 135 seats, proving that the crutches of JD(S) are not necessary to register an impressive victory.

Far from offering a lifeline, the proposed coalition with BJP may actually lead to another crisis within the JD(S), which may find it difficult to keep its flock together as there are already indications that some leaders who would like to retain their “secular tag” may hop over to Congress.

Like all arrangements between political outfits, this too without doubt, is a marriage of convenience.  While fissures have already appeared on both sides even before the wedlock has been solemnised, it remains to be seen who will benefit the most, BJP or JD(S).  Only time will say if this will be a win-win situation or if it will end up being a bad marriage that both will live to regret.

Gautham Machaiah is a senior journalist and political commentator based in Bengaluru. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication