Bengal: Will opposition votes get split between BJP and Left-INC-ISP in 2024?

The other factor is whether the Lok Sabha poll in Bengal will emerge as a three-cornered contest with a surge in Left-Congress votes or a bi-polar one – like in 2014 and 2019.

In cricketing parlance, a reverse swing is the swing of the ball “in the opposite or reversed direction”. The recent panchayat polls in West Bengal witnessed just that – a swing of votes in the opposite or reverse direction.

The rise of the Left and the Congress in Bengal at the cost of BJP is unmistakable and indicates the “reverse swing” in an election which will otherwise be remembered for Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) overwhelming
victory, which was somewhat expected.

But first, a disclaimer

TMC’s Panchayat Poll Performance

Political analyst and psephologist Sanjay Kumar had written in Moneycontrol on how panchayat polls are no indication of what might happen in assembly or Lok Sabha elections. Even if this reverse swing is witnessed, this does not give us a clear indication of how TMC or BJP might perform in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

BJP argues that an “entirely manipulated” poll does not provide the full picture. By this logic, Bengal’s other opposition bloc – Left-Congress-ISF’s (Indian Secular Front) – share should have dropped as well, but it hasdoubled to 21 percent from the 2021 Assembly poll. On the other hand, BJP’s vote share dropped by a staggering 15 percentage points.

Though there is a word of comfort from Amit Malviya, BJP’s co-incharge in the state: “BJP has surpassed its 2018 tally and is way ahead of Congress, Left, ISF and others put together,” the split in the opposition vote, eight months before the national poll, is ominous.

A similar split in the main opposition Congress’ vote in the 1990s secured the Left for the next ten years (2001-2011). In the 1996 Bengal assembly polls, Congress polled nearly 2.5 percentage points more vote share than CPI-M. Media plainly predicted Left’s demise, but the split in the grand old party in 1998 – when TMC was formed – resulted in a comfortable victory for the Left in 2001.

TMC’s 2019 Strategy Shift 

The recent Panchayat poll witnessed a similar split in the opposition vote. BJP – till the 2023 rural poll – has only seen an ascendance since 2014. The Left’s vote moved en bloc to the Right narrowing the gap between TMC and the BJP significantly since 2019. It is at this point TMC changed its strategy.

The local offices of CPI-M – shut since its defeat in 2011 – were allowed to function. Attacks on Left supporters reduced though Mamata continued with her verbal tirade against the Left legitimising them as a dynamic rival. The police stopped pursuing cases – mostly politically motivated ones – providing some breathing space for the Left-Congress alliance.

Simultaneously, BJP’s complete failure to understand Bengal pushed Left-Congress to the second spot in a series of local polls. BJP’s key problem is its failure to figure out a strategy for one-third of the population – the Muslims. There is a clear division within the saffron party on how to deal with every third vote in Bengal.

BJP’s Minority Worry, And TMC’s 

One section believes victory is impossible without engaging with the minorities and the other lot argues that it would dilute the Hindu vote. This debate is damaging BJP in a state where they managed to substantially consolidate Hindu votes for the first time after Independence in 2019. BJP quickly needs to sort out the confusion which is indeed easier said than done in Bengal.

However, Mamata too is worried about the Muslim votes of Bengal, especially Bengali Muslim votes which is over 90 percent of the Muslim population. Internal party reports indicate that the Bengali Muslims are not in decision making positions in the state, which is annoying them.

TMC indeed has lost many Muslim-dominated gram panchayats to the Left-Congress-ISF. This is possibly a reason why Mamata sent a young TMC-leaning Bengali Muslim activist to Rajya Sabha sidestepping Kolkata-based Urdu speaking heavyweights of TMC.

The Modi Factor

The other factor is whether the Lok Sabha poll in Bengal will emerge as a three-cornered contest with a surge in Left-Congress votes or a bi-polar one – like in 2014 and 2019 – as Narendra Modi steps into the state during his election tour. It made a huge difference in earlier polls. On the other hand, a triangular contest will benefit TMC like in the panchayat poll.

A lot would depend on whether Mamata would align with Congress and try to isolate the Left as Left would never align with her, with or without INDIA, or whether she will align surreptitiously with the BJP sabotaging INDIA from within, owing to possible pressure mounted by the central agencies before the national poll.

While at this stage, she has seemingly stepped up the campaign against the BJP, it would be worth monitoring whether she maintains the momentum or slows down before the 2024 poll. She will initiate the endgame – like others – after the big state polls in November and December.

However, politics is a game of speculation and the speculation is now entirely Narendra Modi-centric. Every important political speculator – among the defenders and the challengers – believes that Prime Minister Modi will deliver one masterstroke before 2024 polls which would totally debilitate the Opposition.

This speculation is as much rife in Bengal as in the rest of the country. Like others, Mamata's strategy would depend on the blossoming of such guessworks.

Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.