Assembly Elections | Will Himachal Pradesh buck the trend?

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Will Himachal Pradesh stay true to its character of changing governments every five years and allow the Congress to ride the anti-incumbency wave to victory, or will the hill state let the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) create history by it retaining power?

A keen contest is expected on November 12 when voting will be held in all the 68 constituencies in the state.

No government has returned to power in the state since its formation in 1971, with the only exception of 1985 when late Virbhadra Singh of the Congress opted for mid-term polls, about two years ahead of the schedule, to encash the pro-Congress wave after the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984.

About 37 years later, the BJP is trying to buck the trend. Even its campaign slogan: ‘Rivaaj badlega’ (the trend will change) reflects this expectation.

To counter it, the grand old party has come out with its campaign slogan: ‘Himachal ka Sankalp, Congress hi Vikalp’ (For Himachal [Pradesh]'s resolve, Congress is the only alternative).

Modi’s Appeal

The BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to beat the strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent state government, and break the cycle as in Uttarakhand.

Precisely the reason why Chief Minister Jairam Thakur mainly focuses on Modi’s special bond with Himachal Pradesh, and does not mention any of his achievements during the campaign trail.

Caste Factor

Politics in Himachal Pradesh has been dominated by the upper castes with power remaining largely in the hands of the Rajputs, who constitute about 33 percent of the state’s population of around 7 million. Out of the six chief ministers so far, five were Rajputs.

While Yashwant Singh Parmar was the first Chief Minister in 1952 (Part C State), the other four are Thakur Ram Lal, Virbhadra Singh, Prem Kumar Dhumal, and incumbent Jairam Thakur.

While the Dalits form the second-largest community with 27 percent population, the other politically-dominant caste Brahmins are about 18-20 percent. The BJP’s Shanta Kumar has been the only Brahmin Chief Minister with two incomplete terms from 1977 to 1980, and from 1990 to 1992.

Rebel Woes

Apart from anti-incumbency, the BJP is worried about the presence of a large number of rebels in the electoral battle. They could prove a dampener to its ‘Mission Repeat 2022’.

BJP national president JP Nadda, who hails from Himachal Pradesh, personally reached out to the rebels with an emotional appeal to withdraw from the contest, but only three obliged.

But 12 BJP rebels are still in the fray, and all set to queer the pitch for the ruling party.

Smelling a chance, the Congress managed to convince about eight rebels to opt out of the contest in favour of the official candidates. It now has to grapple with dissidents in about six constituencies only.

Also, the BJP has rested its two stalwarts and former chief ministers Shanta Kumar and Prem Kumar Dhumal this time in accordance with the party’s age ceiling of 75 years to hold any post in the government and the organisation, or to contest an election. It remains to be seen if their retirement will have any bearing on the BJP’s performance, given that the two come from Kangra district in lower Himachal, a region that holds the key to power in the state.

While the region has so far been a traditional stronghold of the saffron party, the Congress is considered strong in upper Himachal, the powerful apple belt.

The AAP Factor?

Fresh from its stunning victory in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was hopeful of a good show in neighbouring Himachal Pradesh as well till the Enforcement Directorate arrested its state in-charge and Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain in a money laundering case on May 30.

His arrest derailed AAP’s momentum though Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia are trying to give the much-needed thrust and bring the party’s campaign back on track.

It is speculated that AAP’s failure to evoke an enthusiastic response from the electorate in Himachal Pradesh has prompted AAP Convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to shift his focus to Gujarat.

Given this, the November 12 battle seems to be a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Election Issues

Unemployment, price rise, corruption, demand for the restoration of the old age pension scheme (OPS), and the Union government's much-touted Agnipath recruitment drive to the armed forces are the key issues in the upcoming elections.

These resulted in the BJP’s defeat in four by-elections, including the Mandi Lok Sabha from where late Virbhadra Singh’s wife and present Himachal Pradesh Congress chief Pratibha Singh got elected, in November 2021.

Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, the Congress has promised implementation of the OPS that impacts around 250,000 government employees, apart from 500,000 jobs out of which 100,000 would be announced in the first Cabinet meeting itself.

Campaign Trail

The state is witnessing hectic campaigning by Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has so far been absent from the poll campaign in view of his ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’.

CM Aspirants

While the BJP is widely expected to go with Thakur, the Congress has four chief ministerial aspirants – two Rajputs (Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu and Asha Kumari), and two Brahmins (Mukesh Agnihotri and Sudhir Sharma).

The next 10 days will see hectic campaigning, with the tide changing in favour of anyone who strikes the right chord with the people of Himachal Pradesh.