Ashish Kyal believes the low of 22,180 is going to be crucial for Nifty 50 because, if one looks at the weekly timeframe chart, this is the same level that was seen during May 2024. A very important base formation also happened in this zone in March 2025.
The 22,900-23,000 zone remains a key resistance band for the Nifty 50 next week, however, a decisive break below 22,350 would indicate a continuation of the downtrend, potentially dragging the index towards 22,200 and even 22,000, making this a crucial make-or-break zone in the near term, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Unless the index gets a bullish candlestick with immediate follow-through, the trend, for now, is down and the April 2025 low has a high likelihood of being tested, Akshay Chinchalkar said.
Given the current price structure and prevailing trend, Sudeep Shah continues to recommend a “sell on rise” strategy, as any short term pullbacks are likely to remain corrective in nature rather than mark the beginning of a sustainable trend reversal.
If the Nifty 50 consolidates, Milan Vaishnav expects the 23,000 level to stay defended.
On the charts, Nifty faces strong resistance at 23,345–23,380, and until this zone is decisively breached alongside improvement in FII positioning, the broader undertone is likely to remain cautious with a sell-on-rise approach, said Sudeep Shah.
Given the current chart structure and weak momentum setup, any near term rebound, if it occurs, is likely to attract fresh selling interest, especially near resistance zones, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
According to Rahul Ghose, a close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook.
Considering the current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities continues to recommend a sell on rally approach.
In the current environment, Ashish Kyal advised clients to remain cautious and avoid aggressive participation in derivatives, given the event-driven volatility.
Sudeep Shah recommends deploying a bear spread strategy by buying 25,150 Put and Selling 25,000 Put, as Nifty is likely to retest the 25,000–24,950 zone in the near term.
After the initial gap-up opening on Monday, a short-term dip cannot be ruled out. Any decline toward the 25,750–25,780 zone could present a buying opportunity for a near-term target of 26,002, Ashish Kyal advised. Among stocks, he believes Granules India appears strong from a short-term perspective, having delivered a decisive breakout from a triangle pattern in the previous session. KEI Industries has also witnessed a strong breakout from a multi-resistance zone around Rs 4,600, supported by healthy volumes in the prior trading session, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone. How the index reacts around these key levels will determine the next meaningful directional move, said Sudeep Shah.
The daily and weekly RSI oscillator levels also suggest a sideways trending market, said Rahul Ghose.
Max Financial Services has delivered a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart, backed by steady follow-through and rising volumes, which strengthens the validity of the move said Sudeep Shah.
Traders should refrain from aggressive dip-buying in IT stocks and consider using rallies toward resistance as opportunities to sell until momentum improves, Sudeep Shah said.
Buying on dips offers a superior risk-reward, while avoiding aggressive trades into the gap and keeping leverage low is advised, said Ashish Kyal.
It would be crucial for the markets to go back inside the original 500-point trading zone created between 26,200 and 25,700. If this happens, then the primary trend would stay intact, said Milan Vaishnav.
Looking ahead, volatility is expected to pick up sharply over the next 2–3 sessions, with the Union Budget 2026 scheduled to be presented by the Finance Minister on February 1.
Momentum indicators remain weak, with the weekly RSI hovering around the 45 mark—its lowest level since April 2025—and trading below its 9-week average, signalling persistent downside momentum in Nifty 50, said Sudeep Shah.
Both private banks and PSU banks are clearly outperforming the benchmark, as reflected by fresh breakouts and rising ratio line on their respective ratio charts versus the Nifty, indicating sustained relative strength, said Sudeep Shah.
Notably, volumes have picked up sharply for the first time since November 12, 2025, indicating strong participation and conviction in the ongoing move of IndusInd Bank, said Ashish Kyal.
Technically, Gold is extremely overbought on all time frames, said Rahul Ghose.
Broader markets are also showing signs of strain. This widespread deterioration highlights a clear contraction in risk appetite, reinforcing the need for a cautious, defensive, and highly selective approach in the near term, Sudeep Shah said.
One can certainly expect Nifty 50 to inch higher so long as it stays above 26,000 level, said Milan Vaishnav.