Why BJP's jubilation and Fadnavis coronation signal a new era in Maharashtra politics

No star-studded event, no political grandstanding, no show of strength — five years ago, BJP's Devendra Fadnavis took oath of office in a secret midnight ceremony after orchestrating a coup with NCP's Ajit Pawar.

Fadnavis did earn himself the distinction of becoming the Maharashtra CM for a second straight term, but the feat was more cosmetic than substantive. The BJP-NCP government lasted just five days and the crown eventually went to Shiv Sena's (then undivided) Uddhav Thackeray.

Today, fate has come full circle for Fadnavis—and BJP—charting a neat arc from the collapse of the rival MVA government in 2022 to his eventual return as the chief minister powered by BJP's dominating performance in Maharashtra.

Fadnavis' grand oath ceremony at Mumbai's Azad Maidan, where Shiv Sena's Eknath Shinde and NCP's Ajit Pawar also took oaths as deputy CMs, was more or less a full-fledged BJP spectacle.

It was a celebration of a significant moment for BJP, which fought its way back to the top in a state dominated by regional forces and caste calculations.

From the margins to head of the table

In 1990, the BJP first made its presence felt in Maharashtra politics after winning 42 seats in the assembly elections during the peak of the Ram Mandir movement. It bettered its performance in 1995 (65 seats) and had its first brush with power after forming an alliance government with Shiv Sena.

The BJP's notable breakthrough in Maharashtra came in 2014 when it emerged as the single largest party, winning 122 seats in the 288-member assembly. The result was a significant boost for the saffron party, which was riding high on Narendra Modi's popularity and the momentum of its 2014 Lok Sabha victory.

Paint It Saffron: Seats won by parties in Maharashtra assembly elections

It also earned itself the "big brother" tag in its alliance with Shiv Sena, a significant feat for the party that was looking to make inroads into the financially prosperous state.

In 2019, BJP again emerged as the single largest party after winning 105 seats in the assembly elections. Its then ally Shiv Sena won 57 seats, giving NDA enough numbers to form a second straight government.

However, disagreement over power-sharing with Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray proved costly for the saffron party. Uddhav eventually walked out of the NDA and formed a new government with Congress and NCP under the banner of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

But this was not the end of the road for the BJP.

Just three years into his first government, Uddhav's Shiv Sena suffered a vertical split after rebel leader Eknath Shinde and a bunch of MLAs defected to the NDA, claiming to be the real Shiv Sena. The rebellion led to the collapse of the MVA government and paved the way for BJP's return to power - with Eknath Shinde as the face of the new "Mahayuti" alliance.

Several reports back then credited Fadnavis for secretly orchestrating the split within Shiv Sena and helping BJP return to the seat of power.

The 2024 assembly elections again marked a seminal moment for BJP in Maharashtra politics. Despite losing its edge in the state after a sub-optimal performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party managed to post its best-ever performance in Maharashtra in the recent assembly elections.

The party, without projecting a CM face, won 132 seats in the 288-member assembly and propelled Mahayuti to an unprecedented victory in the polls. BJP's vote share of 26.77% was more than double Congress' vote share of 12.42%, which was the second highest.

New era?

The decisive result in 2024 has helped BJP stamp its authority as the "primus inter pares" of Maharashtra.

The political landscape of the state now favours a single-party dominance, which is a tempting prospect for BJP.

Over the years, BJP has edged out Congress in Vidarbha and its pocket boroughs in the northern and western Maharashtra.

The splits in Shiv Sena and NCP have also left both factions significantly weaker and vulnerable to defections.

This gives BJP a unique platform to build on its 2024 gain and cement its pole position in Maharashtra.