A majority of exit polls on Wednesday predicted a victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra while at least two pollsters have forecast a hung assembly in the high-stakes political clash. One pollster has given a clear edge to the rival Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), keeping the suspense alive for November 23 when votes will be counted.
In Jharkhand too, pollsters were evenly split. Four exit polls predicted a clear victory for BJP-led NDA while three said that JMM-Congress alliance will keep the state. Dainik Bhaskar has predicted that Jharkhand is headed for a hung assembly.
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The predictions signal a tight electoral contest which can swing either way. They also mark a shift from recent exit poll trends, where at least one party or alliance was given a clear edge by the pollsters.
Maharashtra exit polls decoded
In Maharashtra, a poll of nine exit polls predicted 150 seats for Mahayuti in the 288-member assembly, just 5 seats over the majority mark of 145.
Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024: Highlights
Interestingly, Electoral Edge is the only pollster that has predicted a victory for MVA (Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena), with a forecast of 150 seats.
Dainik Bhaskar and Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra have predicted a hung assembly in the state.
However, six exit polls predicted that Mahayuti will retain power in the state. These include Chanakya Strategies (152-160), Matrize (150-170), P-Marq (137-157), Peoples Pulse (175-195), Poll Diary (122-186) and Times Now JVC (150-167).
The aggregate of all these predictions shows that the ruling Mahayuti is set to hold on to power, albeit with a narrow margin. However, with some pollsters holding out hope for MVA, Maharashtra appears to be headed for a thriller contest on Saturday.
Jharkhand exit polls decoded
In Jharkhand, exit polls did not predict a unanimous winner, setting the tone for a possible edge-of-the-seat contest on November 23.
A poll of eight exit polls shows that BJP-led NDA will win 39 seats while JMM-Congress alliance will get 38 seats.
Jharkhand Exit Polls 2024: Highlights
Chanakya Strategies (45-50), Matrize (42-47), Peoples Pulse (44-53) and Times Now (40-44) predicted a victory for BJP-led NDA in the 81-member assembly. The majority mark is 41.
However, Axis My India, Electoral Edge and P-Marq gave 49-59, 42 and 37-47 seats respectively to the JMM-Congress, indicating that the INDIA bloc will hold on to power in the state.
Axis My India was the only outlier since it predicted a landslide victory for the JMM-led alliance.
The poll of exit polls clearly point to a gripping battle between the two alliances, who are hoping to win the mandate in the crucial state and close 2024 on a winning note.
NDA vs INDIA
In the 2024 elections, Maharashtra witnessed a high-octane clash between the Mahayuti (BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction) and MVA (Congress, Shiv Sena [UBT] and NCP [SP]).
The result of the recent Lok Sabha elections made the battle even more interesting with the opposition MVA (INDIA bloc nationally) trumping the Mahayuti (NDA nationally) in the state.
The MVA collectively won 31 out of the 48 seats in the general election while Mahayuti was restricted to just 17. The results came as a setback for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine which managed to secure the pole position in the state assembly after multiple political re-alignments.
The assembly elections have become a battle of prestige for both alliances. While the Mahayuti aims to overturn its Lok Sabha losses and reclaim momentum in India’s richest state, the MVA is determined to avenge its 2022 setback, when a rebellion led by Shinde resulted in the toppling of the government.
Meanwhile, Jharkhand witnessed a direct clash between the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance and the opposition BJP-led NDA.
The JMM-Congress alliance is hoping to retain power by banking on the achievements of the Soren government and solidifying support from tribal voters. BJP is hoping to make a comeback in the state after a strong show in Haryana.
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